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:''“More recently the buzz and effort has shifted from innovation in legal expertise (inventing [[derivatives]], [[CDO]]s and so on) to how the services that embed that expertise are delivered.”'' | :''“More recently the buzz and effort has shifted from innovation in legal expertise (inventing [[derivatives]], [[CDO]]s and so on) to how the services that embed that expertise are delivered.”'' | ||
This seems to recognise that legal work involving sophisticated real-time reaction to emerging legal quandaries, is (or, at any reate, ''was'') less ''mune'' to the “delivery by [[chatbot]]” — [[A&O]] raked a fair few millions cranking out [[CDO]]s, after all — but nonetheless paints a picture, unrecognisable though it may be to those at the coalface, that ''it’s all changed now''. | |||
''[[This time is different]].'' If I had a penny for every time I had heard that. | |||
Somehow, we’ve solved [[Go|the game]]; there are no mysteries left: one can only now create “legal worth” by supersizing, adding fries, or getting the delivery guy to go faster for less money. ''It’s not about the [[pizza]]''. | |||
===It ''is'' about the [[pizza]].=== | ===It ''is'' about the [[pizza]].=== | ||
But | But it ''is'' about the [[pizza]]. Even now. | ||
The marginal return on any activity is not a function of how ''clever'' it is, but how ''difficult''. It is ''not'' difficult to do clever things with a computer: all you need is a computer, and the Java coder from Bucharest you found on ''UpWork''. But if ''you'' can do it, so can ''anyone else'' who gets hold of a computer and an account on ''UpWork''. Computers are cheap. Romanian Java coders are cheap. | |||
Seeing as that “anyone else” will be your competitor, once you have figured out how to make ''your'' [[pizza]] with a computer, and paid your Java guy, its marginal ''value'' will equal its marginal ''cost of production'' — that is to say, ''nil''. This will happen not just gradually, over a period, but ''at once''. Ask Kodak.<ref>Kodak ''invented'' the digital camera. It still killed them.</ref> Ask people who used to make postcards and aerogrammes. | |||
If you think there is a money to be made delivering a valueless product [[cheapest to deliver|more cheaply than any other bugger]], you will find yourself | If you think there is a money to be made delivering a valueless product [[cheapest to deliver|more cheaply than any other bugger]], you will find yourself galloping to the bottom of a very large, very empty, pit. | ||
The point about real legal work is that you ''can’t'' get a computer to do it. If you could, ''it wouldn’t be legal work''.<ref>I could pause here to pick a fight with the Susskind clan, but it would spoil the flow. But the essence of the argument is this: what counts as | The point about real legal work is that you ''can’t'' get a computer to do it. If you could, ''it wouldn’t be legal work''.<ref>I could pause here to pick a fight with the Susskind clan, but it would spoil the flow. But the essence of the argument is this: what counts as “legal work” is inherently dynamic. It changes through time. It manages non-linear interactions in complex systems. What counts as “legal work” is not just ''hard'' to predict ahead of time: it is ''impossible''.</ref> Legal work is — always has been — about edge cases; conundrums; things; bespoke situations spinning out of non-contiguities and unfortunate reactions between moving parts that no-one expected to move. To be sure, part of a lawyer’s job should be to identify those parts of the ecosystem than ''can'' be fixed, and to prepare the land for tilling: to commoditise new products, productionise them, and hand them off to operations teams who ''can'' make widgets out of them — but ''lawyers don’t make widgets''. Lawyers are ''bushwhackers''. Lawyers are ''pioneers''. | ||
The folks in [[reg tech]] have this exact problem, too: their business model doesn’t work. You can’t continue to extract an annuity out of a quick bit of coding you bought from a guy you found on UpWork. No-one will pay for it. So you have no option but to try to extract ''[[rent]]''. But, ''problem'': the reason anyone wants [[reg tech]] is to intermediate an ''existing'' [[rent-seeker]]. It’s a bum model. Hence: [[Why is reg tech so disappointing?|reg tech remains disappointing]]. | The folks in [[reg tech]] have this exact problem, too: their business model doesn’t work. You can’t continue to extract an annuity out of a quick bit of coding you bought from a guy you found on UpWork. No-one will pay for it. So you have no option but to try to extract ''[[rent]]''. But, ''problem'': the reason anyone wants [[reg tech]] is to intermediate an ''existing'' [[rent-seeker]]. It’s a bum model. Hence: [[Why is reg tech so disappointing?|reg tech remains disappointing]]. |