Finite and Infinite Games: Difference between revisions

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Now this is important, but it would have been better — or, at least, more fathomable — had he explained better what he means by this. That said, this passage assigns as much credit for successful communication to the listener as to the speaker, so perhaps this is the very point. Maybe Carse meant to leave room for listeners to make what they will of his mystic runes. In any case, making head or tail of these cryptic aphorisms is a kind of infinite game of its own — one that Mr. Sinek is playing pretty well. So, let us join in.  
Now this is important, but it would have been better — or, at least, more fathomable — had he explained better what he means by this. That said, this passage assigns as much credit for successful communication to the listener as to the speaker, so perhaps this is the very point. Maybe Carse meant to leave room for listeners to make what they will of his mystic runes. In any case, making head or tail of these cryptic aphorisms is a kind of infinite game of its own — one that Mr. Sinek is playing pretty well. So, let us join in.  


Carse invites us to reframe activities we might see as existential struggles instead as opportunities to build a different future: all it requires is players who are skilled at the infinite game. To do this he sets up a number of dualities:
Carse invites us to reframe activities we might see as existential struggles instead as opportunities to build a different future: all it requires is players who are skilled at the infinite game. This he does by means of a number of dualities:
 
=== Top-down versus bottom-up ===
Finite games are best controlled from the top; infinite ones by empowering those at the bottom.
 
==== Finite games as execution of the master plan ====
{{Quote|
You know, man, when I was a young man in high school<br>
You believe it or not, I wanted to play football for the coach <br>
And all those older guys<br>
They said that he was mean and cruel, but you know<br>
I wanted to play football for the coach.
:Lou Reed, ''Coney Island Baby''}}Finite games favour top-down game management, with central homunculus instilling in players a defined set of pre-formulated tactics: a coach to formulate them and a captain to see they are executed. Infinite games are bottom up: every player must continually assess her environment and work out what to do based on the information she currently has. Here a “coach” is little more than a central coordinator supplying information and resources to help the players make their own tactical decisions as the need arises.
 
In a predefined contest, [[form]] dominates substance: we should concentrate our resources at the centre, formulate rules, work out [[algorithm]]s and devise [[Playbook|playbooks]], since if we get this right, success is a matter of execution, and “failure” comes from shortcomings in execution of the plan. 
 
This has a few implications: firstly, it means the brilliant minds belong at the top of the organisation: they do the most inspired thinking. 
 
Secondly, it means there is no more sacred quest than ''the creation of excellent process''. Our most talented personnel are those who can write and maintain formal rules. 
 
Thirdly, it means those at the edges of the organisation whose job is not to formulate policy but to follow it — those who must put the leadership’s plans and algorithms into practice — ''must not think'': they must, so far as possible, just ''follow instructions'': quickly, flawlessly, cheaply. ''They should act like automatons''. If you are in a finite game environment, the ''last'' thing you want your players to do is improvise, or make things up as they go along: that will upset the carefully formulated plan. Players must not just act like machines: ideally, players would ''be'' machines: cheap, reliable and fungible.
 
Those with an interest in modern corporate management philosophy might recognise this disposition. It is the one that recommends that those who carry out the firm’s day-to-day business and interact with its clients should be [[Downgrading|juniorised]], if they cannot be [[Outsourcing|outsourced]], if they cannot be [[Automation eliminates value but not risk|automated]] — those who formulate strategy and policy and who watch from the Gods should be feted, lionised, and rewarded.
 
==== Infinite games as virtuoso improvisation ''in lieu of'' a master plan ====
[[Infinite game]]s favour virtuoso performances in the field: in a [[wicked environment]] cheap, quick, accurate machines are no use, and the infrastructure they need to ensure they continue working may get in the way. Rather than being elaborate, internal infrastructure should be simple, robust and permissive — enabling communication, facilitating dynamic reallocation of resources, but fundamentally organising the architecture to empower quick and effective decision-making in the field. Seeing as the idea is not to win but to continue, conferring discretion upon those at the edge of the organisation who must engage with the complex adaptive system outside is not necessarily catastrophic as long as the individuals are experienced experts: they must ''not'' act like machines, and empowered — ''trusted'' to deal with unfolding situations as they perceive them. The ongoing prosperity of the organisation is an [[emergent]] property of the behaviour of these subject matter experts. This is quite the opposite model: here the greatest value is provided at the edges of the organisation. The bottom-up model: ''laissez-faire''; [[invisible hand]]; evolutionary.


===“Training” versus “education”===
===“Training” versus “education”===
{{Quote|“To be prepared against surprise is to be ''trained''. To be prepared for surprise is to be ''educated''.”<ref>{{carseref}}17.</ref>}}
It therefore follows that a centrally-guided automaton needs only ''training''; an autonomous agent playing a finite game needs ''education''.{{Quote|“To be prepared against surprise is to be ''trained''. To be prepared for surprise is to be ''educated''.”<ref>{{carseref}}17.</ref>}}


Players of finite games ''train'', but do not need ''education''. A master tactician works out moves, devises playbooks, and solves equations for them, presenting all to the players for ingestion and later regurgitation.   
==== Players of finite games ''train.'' ====
A master tactician works out moves, devises playbooks, and solves equations for them, presenting all to the players for ingestion and later regurgitation.   


All being well, by clinical execution, players overcome their opposition. The team that wins is the one that executes the master plan most effectively. Players should not improvise, for that risks upsetting the master plan. A player’s judgment is limited to selecting which part of the master plan to execute, when and in response to what. Preparation is everything. The idea is to eliminate surprise by having, as far as possible, worked  out all possible permutations in advance, and where computing all possible outcomes is not possible, to have computed more possible outcomes than your opponent.  
All being well, by clinical execution, players overcome their opposition. The team that wins is the one that executes the master plan most effectively. Players should not improvise, for that risks upsetting the master plan. A player’s judgment is limited to selecting which part of the master plan to execute, when and in response to what. Preparation is everything. The idea is to eliminate surprise by having, as far as possible, worked  out all possible permutations in advance, and where computing all possible outcomes is not possible, to have computed more possible outcomes than your opponent.  
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This is the [[High modernism|modernist]], computerised model of operation: fast, cheap, accurate calculation. The last thing you want is variability, or a player using her initiative: that can ruin everything.
This is the [[High modernism|modernist]], computerised model of operation: fast, cheap, accurate calculation. The last thing you want is variability, or a player using her initiative: that can ruin everything.


This strategy works where all parameters are fixed and all possible outcomes at least knowable in theory — [[zero-sum game]]s, [[simple system]]s, football matches — but does not ''always'' work in the dancing landscapes of [[Complex system|complex adaptive system]]s. If you prepared for chess, your work will be for naught if the game morphs into draughts — or, just as likely, cookery, music, or electronics. Here, instead of eliminating surprise, you equip yourself to deal with it: you need not answers but tools, [[heuristic]]s and a facility with [[:Category:Metaphor|metaphor]].
==== Players of infinite games need ''education''. ====
''Training'' works where all parameters are fixed and all possible outcomes at least knowable in theory — [[zero-sum game]]s, [[simple system]]s, football matches — but does not ''always'' work in the dancing landscapes of [[Complex system|complex adaptive system]]s.  
 
If you have prepared for chess, your work will be for naught if the game morphs into draughts — or, just as likely, cookery, music, electronics, or a dialogue about conceptual art. Here, instead of eliminating surprise, you equip yourself to deal with it: you need not answers but tools, [[heuristic]]s and a facility with [[:Category:Metaphor|metaphor]].
 
===“Complicated” versus “complex”===
 
==== Finite games are ''[[complicated]]''. ====
{{complicated capsule}}
 
==== [[Infinite game|Infinite games]] are ''[[complex]]''. ====
{{complex capsule}}
===“Historic” versus “prospective”===
Many distinctions between finite and infinite games boil down to their historical perspective: those that look backwards, concerning themselves with what has already been established and laid down — as agreed rules, formal boundaries and limited time periods for resolution necessarily do — will tend to be finite in nature; those that are open-ended, forward looking, and indeterminate — concerned with what has yet to happen, and is necessarily unknown, are infinite.
 
Let me throw in some original research here: historically-focused finite games are ''fine'': there is no harm and much reward to be had from a game of football, as long as everyone understands the “theatricality” of what is going on; but to apply finite, backward-looking techniques to the “resolution” of ''infinite'' scenarios — necessarily forward-looking, indeterminate problems (in that you don’t even know that there is a problem, let alone what it is) will get you into bother.
 
[[File:Normal vs fat-tailed distribution.png|350px|thumb|right|The ostensible similarity between normal and fat-tailed distributions, yesterday.]]Yet, finite techniques may work perfectly well much of the time, because infinite environments may often function by reference to established order, existing rules and what is already known, and when they do, they ''look like'' finite games — it’s just that they don’t have to ''keep'' functioning that way, and are liable to stop doing so without notice.
 
As long as your environment behaves itself, a “historic” approach is efficient, effective, and central control ''as if it were a finite game'' and provides consistency and certainty. This is why [[thought leader]]s are so fond of sporting metaphors.
 
This, we think, is just an other way of noting that the middle of a [[normal distribution]] resembles the middle of a “fat-tailed” distribution and the same approaches will work passably well for both, as long as the events fall within the middle, which for the most part they do.
{{Quote|“We were seeing things that were 25 [[standard deviation]] moves, several days in a row”.
:—David Viniar, Chief Financial Officer, [[Goldman Sachs]], August 2007.}}
It is also, let us hazard, why senior executives in large corporations get paid so much money. When events are within a couple of standard deviations of the mean — as, for the most part they are — central control seems a capital idea, and well worth paying for.
 
When a [[Complex system|wicked environment]] goes all kooky on you — as surely it will from time to time — and your executive leaders start telling you something that has happened three times this week already shouldn’t have happened one in several trillion trillion lives of the universe, it may feel like you’ve been paying for talent in all the wrong places in the organisation.<ref>You would expect a “25-sigma move” on one in 1.3 billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion billion days, which is several trillion trillion trillion trillion times as long as the life (to date) of the known universe. More on this fascinating topic on our [[normal distribution]] article.</ref>


===“Power” versus “strength”===
===“Power” versus “strength”===
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{{quote|“Society they understand as the sum of those relations that are under some form of public constraint, culture as whatever we do with each other by undirected choice. If society is all that a people fells it must do, culture “is the realm of the variable, free, not necessarily universal, of all that cannot lay claim to compulsive authority”.<ref>{{carseref}}33 (citing Carl Jacob Christoph Burckhardt).</ref>}}
{{quote|“Society they understand as the sum of those relations that are under some form of public constraint, culture as whatever we do with each other by undirected choice. If society is all that a people fells it must do, culture “is the realm of the variable, free, not necessarily universal, of all that cannot lay claim to compulsive authority”.<ref>{{carseref}}33 (citing Carl Jacob Christoph Burckhardt).</ref>}}


Perhaps Carse would describe a power structure as “society” and a strength structure “culture”. The historic, zero-sum nature of finite games contrasts with the prospective, permissive nature of infinite ones.  
Perhaps Carse would describe a [[power structure]] as of “society” and a “strength structure” as of “culture”. The historic, zero-sum nature of finite games contrasts with the prospective, permissive nature of infinite ones.  


''Society'' is finite, bounded, and patriotic: functions to establish a hierarchy, bestowing titles, honorifics and awards — the emblems of past victories in combat, and markers of power —to grant certain participants [[formal]] status. One desires the permanence of society because it vouches safe the permanence of one’s titles and prizes.
''Society'' is finite, bounded, and patriotic: functions to establish a hierarchy, bestowing titles, honorifics and awards — the emblems of past victories in combat, and markers of power —to grant certain participants [[formal]] status. One desires the permanence of society because it vouches safe the permanence of one’s titles and prizes.
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Society is ambivalent towards the dreamers and malcontents who imagine a different order — they once broke Mick Jagger on a wheel; now he’s a peer of the realm — but they operate not by directly confronting the established order, but by sketching out an imagined alternative which eventually takes root.
Society is ambivalent towards the dreamers and malcontents who imagine a different order — they once broke Mick Jagger on a wheel; now he’s a peer of the realm — but they operate not by directly confronting the established order, but by sketching out an imagined alternative which eventually takes root.


==Original research==
===“Formal” versus “substantive”===
There are many resonances here with some of the JC’s other favourite big ideas.
We have argued [[High modernism|elsewhere]], at [[Tedium|tedious]] length, that the great curse of [[Modernism|modernity]] is the primacy of [[Substance and form|form over substance]].  
 
===“Complicated” versus “complex”===
Finite games are ''[[complicated]]''.
 
{{complicated capsule}}
 
[[Infinite game|Infinite games]] are ''[[complex]]''.
 
{{complex capsule}}
===“Historic” versus “prospective”===
Many distinctions between finite and infinite games boil down to their historical perspective: those that look backwards, concerning themselves with what has already been established and laid down — as agreed rules, formal boundaries and limited time periods for resolution necessarily do — will tend to be finite in nature; those that are open-ended, forward looking, and indeterminate — concerned with what has yet to happen, and is necessarily unknown, are infinite.


Let me throw in some original research here: historically-focused games are ''fine'': there is no harm and much reward to be had from a game of football, as long as everyone understands the “theatricality” of what is going on; but to apply finite, backward-looking techniques to the “resolution” of ''infinite'' scenarios — necessarily forward-looking, indeterminate problems (in that you don’t even know that there is a problem, let alone what it is) is where you will get into bother.
In [[Finite game|finite games]] the distinction between the two can be trivial; in an infinite game it is not.
 
[[File:Normal vs fat-tailed distribution.png|350px|thumb|right|The ostensible similarity between normal and fat-tailed distributions, yesterday.]]It is deceptive in that finite techniques may work perfectly well much of the time, because even infinite environments largely function by reference to established order, existing rules and what is already known: they look, for the most part, like finite games — it’s just that they don’t have to, and are liable to change without notice. As long as they behave themselves, a finite approach is efficient, effective, centrally controllable and provides consistency and certainty. This is why [[thought leader]]s are so fond of sporting metaphors.
 
This, we think, is just an other way of noting that the middle of a [[normal distribution]] resembles the middle of a “fat-tailed” distribution and the same approaches will work passably well for both, as long as the events fall within the middle, which for the most part they do.
 
===“Formal” versus “substantive”===
We have argued elsewhere that the great curse of [[Modernism|modernity]] is the primacy of [[Substance and form|form over substance]]. In [[Finite game|finite games]] the distinction between the two can be trivial; in an infinite game it is not.


In a backward-looking, proven, data-complete universe, ''substance is simply a specific articulation of form''. The universe is solved; there is an exclusive optimal move and it can be derived from first principle. Substance follows from — is dependent on — form. Form is an axiom; substance is its articulation with numbers. If you have right equation — that is to say, if you follow the right form — you will get the right answer. Indeed, without the right form you have almost no chance of getting the right answer, and none at all of knowing that you have it. This depends on the universe being bounded, all rules determined, all [[Unknowns|knowns known.]] It depends, therefore, on ''the conditions existing for a [[finite game]]''.
In a backward-looking, proven, data-complete universe, ''substance is simply a specific articulation of form''. The universe is solved; there is an exclusive optimal move and it can be derived from first principle. Substance follows from — is dependent on — form. Form is an axiom; substance is its articulation with numbers. If you have right equation — that is to say, if you follow the right form — you will get the right answer. Indeed, without the right form you have almost no chance of getting the right answer, and none at all of knowing that you have it. This depends on the universe being bounded, all rules determined, all [[Unknowns|knowns known.]] It depends, therefore, on ''the conditions existing for a [[finite game]]''.


Where the universe is not bounded, where rules are unknown or changeable, where unknowns swamp knowns<ref>[[Signal-to-noise ratio|All data is from the past]]. Seeing as there is an infinite amount of data from the future, the portion of the available data we have is, effectively, nil. </ref> — where the [[Infinite game|game is ''infinite'']] — ''substance is not a function of form''. There are no equations, axioms or formulae to follow when interacting with [[Complex system|complex adaptive system]]s. It will be tempting to rely on formulae that tend to work most of the time — the [[Black-Scholes option pricing model|Black Scholes option pricing model]] works most of the time, at least [[Long-Term Capital Management|until it does not]] — but this is a lazy and, at the limit, dangerous, economy. We need a different approach. Instead of the trained — those best equipped to carry out complicated instructions — we need the ''educated'': those best equipped to [[OODA loop|observe, orient, decide and act]]. These people are necessarily skilled, experienced and therefore ''expensive''.
Where the universe is not bounded, where rules are unknown or changeable, where unknowns swamp knowns<ref>[[Signal-to-noise ratio|All data is from the past]]. Seeing as there is an infinite amount of data from the future, the portion of the available data we have is, effectively, nil. </ref> — where the [[Infinite game|game is ''infinite'']] — ''substance is not a function of form''. There are no equations, axioms or formulae to follow when interacting with [[Complex system|complex adaptive system]]s. It will be tempting to rely on formulae that tend to work most of the time — the [[Black-Scholes option pricing model|Black Scholes option pricing model]] works most of the time, at least [[Long-Term Capital Management|until it does not]] — but this is a lazy and, as Mr Viniar’s shareholders found, dangerous economy.  


=== Top-down versus bottom-up===
Instead of an army of the ''trained'' carrying [[playbook]]<nowiki/>s containing the pre-baked tactics of a super-coach, we need the ''educated'': those best equipped to [[OODA loop|observe, orient, decide and act]] — if combat is required — or collaborate, if it is not. People who can do this well must necessarily be skilled, experienced and therefore ''expensive'' — but none is anything like as expensive as a super coach''.''
{{Quote|
You know, man, when I was a young man in high school<br>
You believe it or not, I wanted to play football for the coach <br>
And all those older guys<br>
They said that he was mean and cruel, but you know<br>
I wanted to play football for the coach.
:Lou Reed, ''Coney Island Baby''}}


==== Finite games as execution of the master plan ====
=== Problem cases===
Finite games favour top-down game management, with central homunculus instilling in players a defined set of pre-formulated tactics: a coach to formulate them and a captain to see they are executed. Infinite games are bottom up: every player must continually assess her environment and work out what to do based on the information she currently has. Here a “coach” is little more than a central coordinator supplying information and resources to help the players make their own tactical decisions as the need arises.
Finite and Infinite Games is a theoretical tract — a work of abstract principle, not a practical guide — and while it is a useful means of framing a different approach to business and a powerful tool for disarm our intuition that business leaders are worth the compensation they are paid. But they cannot solve the intractable messiness of the real world. Bad things happen, and even a distributed network of empowered subject matter experts is fallible.
 
In a predefined contest, [[form]] dominates substance: we should concentrate our resources at the centre, formulate rules, work out [[algorithm]]s and devise [[Playbook|playbooks]], since if we get this right, success is a matter of execution, and “failure” comes from shortcomings in execution of the plan. 
 
This has a few implications: firstly, it means the brilliant minds belong at the top of the organisation: they do the most inspired thinking. 
 
Secondly, it means there is no more sacred quest than ''the creation of excellent process''. Our most talented personnel are those who can write and maintain formal rules. 
 
Thirdly, it means those at the edges of the organisation whose job is not to formulate policy but to follow it — those who must put the leadership’s plans and algorithms into practice — ''must not think'': they must, so far as possible, just ''follow instructions'': quickly, flawlessly, cheaply. ''They should act like automatons''. If you are in a finite game environment, the ''last'' thing you want your players to do is improvise, or make things up as they go along: that will upset the carefully formulated plan. Players must not just act like machines: ideally, players would ''be'' machines: cheap, reliable and fungible.
 
Those with an interest in modern corporate management philosophy might recognise this disposition. It is the one that recommends that those who carry out the firm’s day-to-day business and interact with its clients should be [[Downgrading|juniorised]], if they cannot be [[Outsourcing|outsourced]], if they cannot be [[Automation eliminates value but not risk|automated]] — those who formulate strategy and policy and who watch from the Gods should be feted, lionised, and rewarded.
 
==== Infinite games as virtuoso improvisation ====
[[Infinite game]]s favour virtuoso performances in the field: in a [[wicked environment]] cheap, quick, accurate machines are no use, and the infrastructure they need to ensure they continue working may get in the way. Rather than being elaborate, internal infrastructure should be simple, robust and permissive — enabling communication, facilitating dynamic reallocation of resources, but fundamentally organising the architecture to empower quick and effective decision-making in the field. Seeing as the idea is not to win but to continue, conferring discretion upon those at the edge of the organisation who must engage with the complex adaptive system outside is not necessarily catastrophic as long as the individuals are experienced experts: they must ''not'' act like machines, and empowered — ''trusted'' to deal with unfolding situations as they perceive them. The ongoing prosperity of the organisation is an [[emergent]] property of the behaviour of these subject matter experts. This is quite the opposite model: here the greatest value is provided at the edges of the organisation. The bottom-up model: ''laissez-faire''; [[invisible hand]]; evolutionary.


===As [[Single-round prisoner’s dilemma|single-round]] and [[Iterated prisoner’s dilemma|iterated prisoner’s dilemmas]]===
==== You cannot switch overnight ====
A finite game can be part of an infinite game but not vice versa. One could regard a sports franchise an an organisation playing an infinite game through the medium of finite games: here its immediate interests in each distinct match — to comprehensively, theatrically, thrash the opposition is tempered by its wider interest to keep the infinite game going by creating a compelling sporting contest in which there is the drama that one might not, at any time, win. To carry on that wider, infinite game, one’s opponents must not only survive, but ''flourish'' to the point where they can and will beat you in a finite game, thus supplying theatre if not really drama: an unbeatable team is unsatisfying for winners, losers and spectators alike.
Multinationals have been in thrall to the cult of the chief executive for decades. The firm’s design choices, big and small — the way it structures its business, how it organises operations, who it hires to do what — all are predicated on the [[High modernism|modernist]] disposition that genius lies in formulating that central strategy, and that day-to-day management is a matter of efficiently carrying it out. We don’t hire experienced, expert improvisers to do “[[service delivery]]” — we hire school-leavers from Bucharest and give them a user manual. Those who stay on and progress do so not because of their talent for extemporising, but because they are excellent  — meaning fast — at following instructions. The organisation fashions itself over time in its own image. Should the scales fall from your eyes, you cannot command an over-managed multitude of rule-followers to suddenly “be agile” or “creative” at least not without dispensing the management superstructure that sits over them nannying them into doing no such thing. Modernist approach is a matter of ''culture'' and culture sits deep in the ontology of the system. Culture moves very slowly. It cannot change overnight.


And here we wonder a little about the commutability of infinite games into finite ones: sporting matches are like single round prisoner’s dilemmas: zero-sum in a way that recommends only outright domination.
==== The Christians, atheists and their [[interminable game]]s====
===Problem cases===
====The Christians, atheists and their [[interminable game]]s====
A particular type of argumentative youth — it may not shock you to find that the JC was one, once — will take delight in forming abstract and highly artificial positions from which to launch highly formalised denouncements of the views of an anyone holding a contradictory abstract position while opponents to just the same thing back
A particular type of argumentative youth — it may not shock you to find that the JC was one, once — will take delight in forming abstract and highly artificial positions from which to launch highly formalised denouncements of the views of an anyone holding a contradictory abstract position while opponents to just the same thing back