What We Owe The Future: Difference between revisions

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 It is not at all clear that we can do anything to influence the distance future (''[[expected value]]''? Like, ''seriously''? Are we rolling dice here?), nor why organisms now should care for the future of their species in 500 million years which, if it survives, will have doubtlessly evolved beyond all recognition.
-Quick side bar: Probabilities are suitable for closed bounded systems with a ''complete'' set of ''known'' outcomes. The probability of rolling a six is one in six because a die has six sides of equal size, and it must land on one, and it as likely to land on any side. Probabilities work for [[finite game]]s. The future of a universe is in no sense a finite game. It is not bounded, information is not complete, there possible outcomes are not known. You can't calculate probabilities. {{Author|Gerd Gigerenzer}} would say it is a situation of ''uncertainty'', not ''risk''. There are no expectations.
+{{Quote|Quick side bar: [[Probabilities]] are suitable for closed, bounded systems with a ''complete'' set of ''known'' outcomes. The probability of rolling a six is ⅙ because a die has six equal sides, is equally likely to land on any side, and must land on one, and no other outcome is possible. ''This is not how most things in life work''. Probabilities work for [[finite game]]s. ''The future is in no sense a finite game''. It is unbounded, ambiguous, incomplete, the range of possible outcomes are not known and may as well be infinite. ''You can't calculate probabilities about it''. {{Author|Gerd Gigerenzer}} would say it is a situation of ''uncertainty'', not ''risk''. ''Expectation theory is worthless.''}}
 This demolishes MacAskill’s foundational premise — that “expectation theory” is relevant — and is enough to trash the book’s thesis ''in toto''. But it is fun to carry on.