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What We Owe The Future: Difference between revisions
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But ultimately it is the sub-Sagan, sub-Harari style | But ultimately it is the sub-Sagan, sub-Harari style | ||
of wiser-than-thou top-down moral counselling that really grates: we (us clever people) need to solve the problems of the future centrally and this requires brainy people in the academy, like me, to do it. And the answer might be at the great expense of all you stupid nose-breathing oxygen wasters out there. | of wiser-than-thou top-down moral counselling that really grates: we (us clever people) need to solve the problems of the future centrally and this requires brainy people in the academy, like me, to do it. And the answer might be at the great expense of all you stupid nose-breathing oxygen wasters out there. | ||
We should sacrifice you lot — birds in the hand — for your far-distant descendants — birds in a bush that may or may not be there in 500m years. | |||
Thanks — but no thanks. | Thanks — but no thanks. | ||
It is not at all clear that we can do anything to influence the | It is not at all clear that we can do anything to influence the distant future (a meteor could wipe us out any time), nor why organisms around ''now'' should give the merest flying hoot for the future of their species in 500 million years which, if it survives, will have doubtlessly evolved beyond all recognition. | ||
{{Quote|Quick side bar: [[Probabilities]] are suitable for closed, bounded systems with a ''complete'' set of ''known'' outcomes. The probability of rolling a six is ⅙ because a die has six equal sides, is equally likely to land on any side, and must land on one, and no other outcome is possible. ''This is not how most things in life work''. Probabilities work for [[finite game]]s. ''The future is in no sense a finite game''. It is unbounded, ambiguous, incomplete, the range of possible outcomes are not known and may as well be infinite. ''You can't calculate probabilities about it''. {{Author|Gerd Gigerenzer}} would say it is a situation of ''uncertainty'', not ''risk''. ''Expectation theory is worthless.''}} | {{Quote|Quick side bar: [[Probabilities]] are suitable for closed, bounded systems with a ''complete'' set of ''known'' outcomes. The probability of rolling a six is ⅙ because a die has six equal sides, is equally likely to land on any side, and must land on one, and no other outcome is possible. ''This is not how most things in life work''. Probabilities work for [[finite game]]s. ''The future is in no sense a finite game''. It is unbounded, ambiguous, incomplete, the range of possible outcomes are not known and may as well be infinite. ''You can't calculate probabilities about it''. {{Author|Gerd Gigerenzer}} would say it is a situation of ''uncertainty'', not ''risk''. ''Expectation theory is worthless.''}} | ||