From The Jolly Contrarian
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- Situation: An unusual increase in deaths or medical incidents to exceed statistical averages for which there is no obvious “innocent” explanation.
- Suspect: A given carer or medical professional was present for all the incidents.
- No direct evidence: There is no reliable direct evidence of the identified carer actually harming any of the patients.
- “Small arrows”: There are many pieces of weak circumstantial evidence pointing to (or at least consistent with) the carer’s involvement, but which, when taken individually, do not strongly implicate the carer.
- No motive: The suspect has no apparent motive.
- No tendency: The suspect has no prior record of violence, antisocial behaviour or mental illness.