Inference
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Crime & Punishment
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Inference
/ˈɪnfərəns/ (n.)
Rationality in decision-making (and by extension, in drawing inferences) is bounded by the information we have, our cognitive limitations, and the time available to make decisions.
Our prior beliefs and probabilities influence our interpretation of new evidence and the inferences we draw or find convincing.
Narrative attraction: Some inferences might be more appealing because they form more coherent, satisfying, or familiar narratives. In a criminal investigation a narrative that suggests a coherent pattern of intentional offending will be more satisfying and coherent then one which suggests an unusual cluster of random events.
This subjectivity doesn’t necessarily invalidate the inferential process, but it prays caution, transparency about our reasoning processes, and openness to revising our conclusions as new information becomes available.