Technological unemployment: Difference between revisions
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{{a|tech|[[File:BS bingo.png|450px|frame|center|This graphic courtesy of the JC’s own spurious correlations research programme]]}}One of the great {{t|dogma}}s. | {{a|tech|[[File:BS bingo.png|450px|frame|center|This graphic courtesy of the JC’s own spurious correlations research programme]]}}{{ACC on technology}} | ||
One of the great {{t|dogma}}s. | |||
As articulated by Keynes: “unemployment due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.”<ref>Keynes: ''Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren''</ref>. You would think that this can only ever be a temporary effect: the entrepreneurial possibilities created by freeing labour up from one occupation to do anything else must mean in the long run ''there can be no technological unemployment''. History definitely tells us that. But — just try telling that to {{author|Daniel Susskind}}. [[This time is different]].<ref>We say to him what we [[The Singularity is Near - Book Review|said a decade]] ago to {{author|Ray Kurzweil}}: “... it’s easy to be smug as I type on my decidedly physical computer, showing no signs of being superseded with VR Goggles just yet and we’re only six months from the new decade, [''note: that was the '''last''' decade.''] but, being as path-dependent as it is the evolutionary process is notoriously bad at making predictions — until the results are in.”</ref> | As articulated by Keynes: “unemployment due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.”<ref>Keynes: ''Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren''</ref>. You would think that this can only ever be a temporary effect: the entrepreneurial possibilities created by freeing labour up from one occupation to do anything else must mean in the long run ''there can be no technological unemployment''. History definitely tells us that. But — just try telling that to {{author|Daniel Susskind}}. [[This time is different]].<ref>We say to him what we [[The Singularity is Near - Book Review|said a decade]] ago to {{author|Ray Kurzweil}}: “... it’s easy to be smug as I type on my decidedly physical computer, showing no signs of being superseded with VR Goggles just yet and we’re only six months from the new decade, [''note: that was the '''last''' decade.''] but, being as path-dependent as it is the evolutionary process is notoriously bad at making predictions — until the results are in.”</ref> | ||
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The history of the world so far: we solve old problems, usually by accident. Old problem goes away and in its place we find a range up untapped, hitherto unimagined ''possibilities''. | The history of the world so far: we solve old problems, usually by accident. Old problem goes away and in its place we find a range up untapped, hitherto unimagined ''possibilities''. | ||
Machines aren’t awfully good at imagining hitherto unforeseeable possibilities, let alone figuring out how to exploit them. And no, being good at Go or Chess doesn’t falsify that observation.<ref>Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this the “ludic fallacy”. {{google2|Ludic|Fallacy}}.</ref> Machines are good at doing what someone has figured out needs to be done, now, only faster. They require configuration, programming and implementation. Machines | Machines aren’t awfully good at imagining hitherto unforeseeable possibilities, let alone figuring out how to exploit them. And no, being good at Go or Chess doesn’t falsify that observation.<ref>Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this the “ludic fallacy”. {{google2|Ludic|Fallacy}}.</ref> Machines are good at doing what someone has figured out needs to be done, now, only faster. They require configuration, programming and implementation. Machines are [[A faster horse - technology article|faster horses]]. They won’t imagine an alternative future for you. Not even clever, [[Artificial intelligence|artificially intelligent]], seemingly [[magic|magical machines]]. | ||
We are in the middle of a Cambrian explosion of innovations. The one thing we can be assured won’t work right now are [[A faster horse - technology article|faster horses]]. | We are in the middle of a Cambrian explosion of innovations. The one thing we can be assured won’t work right now are [[A faster horse - technology article|faster horses]]. | ||