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===What is new about technology=== | ===What is new about technology=== | ||
{{Author|Ray Kurzweil}} will tell you we are at an inflection point where our technology is so good, and developing so quickly, it is about to become self-aware. Not only that, the ''universe itself'' is about to wake up and become self aware.<ref>See {{br|The Singularity is Near}}. Now there is [https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632800-900-is-the-universe-conscious-it-seems-impossible-until-you-do-the-maths/ a view that the universe is ''already'' self aware], only it operates at level of abstraction so far above our own mortal plane that we can’t see it — we are to its consciousness as our brain’s individual neurons are to ''our'' consciousness — and this idea has force (even if it ios a shade unfalsifiable). But that is not what Kurzweil is saying.</ref> Now that particular cup of Kool-Aid hasn’t made it to the [[JC]] yet — it seems to be going the other way around the circle as a matter of fact — so set him old forth on what ''he'' knows, and that is this: the startling developments in technology in the last forty years hail from three interconnected places: | {{Author|Ray Kurzweil}} will tell you we are at an inflection point where our technology is so good, and developing so quickly, it is about to become self-aware. Not only that, the ''universe itself'' is about to wake up and become self aware.<ref>See {{br|The Singularity is Near}}. Now there is [https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632800-900-is-the-universe-conscious-it-seems-impossible-until-you-do-the-maths/ a view that the universe is ''already'' self aware], only it operates at level of abstraction so far above our own mortal plane that we can’t see it — we are to its consciousness as our brain’s individual neurons are to ''our'' consciousness — and this idea has force (even if it ios a shade unfalsifiable). But that is not what Kurzweil is saying.</ref> Now that particular cup of Kool-Aid hasn’t made it to the [[JC]] yet — it seems to be going the other way around the circle as a matter of fact — so set him old forth on what ''he'' knows, and that is this: the startling developments in technology in the last forty years hail from three interconnected places: | ||
*'''[[The analogue/digital transformation]]''': The discovery that information can be abstracted from the [[substrate]] in which it is usually embedded, so that data can be transferred from place to place ''without'' being buried in an analog medium of some kind. | *'''[[The analogue/digital transformation]]''': The discovery that information can be abstracted from the [[substrate]] in which it is usually embedded, so that data can be transferred from place to place ''without'' being buried in an analog medium of some kind. A letter, as an intellectual construct, can exist without ink, paper or an envelope. | ||
*'''Moore’s law''': Now we have liberated data from its substrate, we need the kit to process it. This finally came good when the vacuum tube gave way to the transistor. Transistors suddenly got better, fast. Moore’s law documents an exponential increase in processing power, and decrease in size and cost of processors themselves — though one which seems to be reaching its logical limit | *'''Moore’s law''': Now we have liberated data from its substrate, we need the kit to process it. This finally came good when the vacuum tube gave way to the transistor. Transistors suddenly got better, fast. Moore’s law documents an exponential increase in processing power, and decrease in size and cost of processors themselves — though one which seems to be reaching its logical limit. The information in a letter can be automatically, quickly and cheaply copied, augmented, processed, changed, . | ||
*'''The network effect''': The exponential increase in our own digital inter-connectivity. Data is finally free of its mortal shackles, and we have the machines to crunch it, and now we can move it frictionlessly from place to place, anywhere on the globe. | *'''The network effect''': The exponential increase in our own digital inter-connectivity. Data is finally free of its mortal shackles, and we have the machines to crunch it, and now we can move it frictionlessly from place to place, anywhere on the globe. The information in a letter can be (i) extracted from the substrate (ii) decomposed into addressed packets of data; (iii) routed across a network and (iv) reassembled and injected (if need be) back into a [[substrate]]. | ||
Any one of these developments is powerful, but when the three work together the results are revolutionary. The analogue/digital transformation commenced as long ago as the [[Jacquard loom]] in 1804. Moore’s law has been a thing since before Gordon Moore first noticed it in 1965. The internet — a global network of interconnected computers, used mainly by the military industrial complex<ref>See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Internet Wikipedia] for more.</ref> — became a public thing when Sir Tim Berners-Lee invented the world wide web in 1989. Then suddenly we were cooking with gas. | Any one of these developments is powerful, but when the three work together the results are revolutionary. The analogue/digital transformation commenced as long ago as the [[Jacquard loom]] in 1804. Moore’s law has been a thing since before Gordon Moore first noticed it in 1965. The internet — a global network of interconnected computers, used mainly by the military industrial complex<ref>See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Internet Wikipedia] for more.</ref> — became a public thing when Sir Tim Berners-Lee invented the world wide web in 1989. Then suddenly we were cooking with gas. | ||
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And as for software: all the world is a coder. You can find cheap coders in rented rooms in Bratislava, Bogota and Bangalore. Coders are mainly fungible too. So if one guy can do it over a weekend, so can ten thousand others. | And as for software: all the world is a coder. You can find cheap coders in rented rooms in Bratislava, Bogota and Bangalore. Coders are mainly fungible too. So if one guy can do it over a weekend, so can ten thousand others. | ||
So, dear reg-tech providers, if you want to monetise your offering, your special sauce will need to be your ''software''. If all you are doing is cleverly combining the three magical effects of hardware and delivering simple software API on the top of that, do not expect to make any money for long. If you quite your job as a lawyer to start your reg-tech started up by ex lawyers they are | So, dear reg-tech providers, if you want to monetise your offering, your special sauce will need to be your ''software''. If all you are doing is cleverly combining the three magical effects of hardware and delivering simple software API on the top of that, do not expect to make any money for long. If you quite your job as a lawyer to start your reg-tech started up by ex lawyers they are unlikely | ||
Next:[[Why is reg tech so disappointing?]] | |||
{{sa}} | {{sa}} |