Prisoner’s dilemma: Difference between revisions

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an exercise in calculating economic outcomes by means of metaphor.
An exercise in calculating economic outcomes by means of {{tag|metaphor}}.


Two people are arrested and charged with a conspiracy<ref>Whether or not they are guilty is beside the point. If it helps you empathise with their predicament, assume they’re innocent</ref>.  Each person is held in solitary confinement and cannot communicate with his associate. There is enough evidence to convict them on a lesser charge, but not the main charge. Simultaneously, the police offer each prisoner a bargain. Each prisoner is given the opportunity either to betray the other by testifying that the other committed the crime, or to cooperate with the other by remaining silent. The offer is:
Two people are arrested and charged with a conspiracy<ref>Whether or not they are guilty is beside the point. If it helps you empathise with their predicament, assume they’re innocent</ref>.  Each is held separately in solitary confinement. The two cannot communicate. The authorities have enough evidence to convict both on a lesser charge, but not the main charge. The authorities go to each prisoner separately and offer each the same bargain if she agrees to inform on her co-conspirator. The offer is:
*If A and B each betray the other, each of them serves two years in prison
*If A informs B but B refuses to inform on A:
*If A betrays B but B remains silent, A will be set free and B will serve three years in prison (and vice versa)
**A will not be prosecuted on the lesser charge and will go free
*If A and B both remain silent, both of them will only serve one year in prison (on the lesser charge).
**B will be prosecuted on the main charge and serve a '''three''' year sentence
*If A informs B ''and'' B informs on A:
**A will serve a two year sentence
**B will serve a two year sentence
*If A refuses to inform on B and B refuses to inform on A:
**A will serve a one year sentence (on the lesser charge).
**B will serve a one year sentence (on the lesser charge).

Revision as of 10:55, 23 July 2018

An exercise in calculating economic outcomes by means of metaphor.

Two people are arrested and charged with a conspiracy[1]. Each is held separately in solitary confinement. The two cannot communicate. The authorities have enough evidence to convict both on a lesser charge, but not the main charge. The authorities go to each prisoner separately and offer each the same bargain if she agrees to inform on her co-conspirator. The offer is:

  • If A informs B but B refuses to inform on A:
    • A will not be prosecuted on the lesser charge and will go free
    • B will be prosecuted on the main charge and serve a three year sentence
  • If A informs B and B informs on A:
    • A will serve a two year sentence
    • B will serve a two year sentence
  • If A refuses to inform on B and B refuses to inform on A:
    • A will serve a one year sentence (on the lesser charge).
    • B will serve a one year sentence (on the lesser charge).
  1. ↑ Whether or not they are guilty is beside the point. If it helps you empathise with their predicament, assume they’re innocent
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