Template:Complicated capsule: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 11:25, 3 April 2022

Complicated systems require interaction with autonomous agents whose specific behaviour is beyond the user’s control, and might be intended to defeat the user’s objective, but whose range of behaviour is deterministic, rule-bound and known and can therefore be predicted in advance. You know you have a complicated system when it cleaves to a comprehensive set of axioms and rules, and thus it is a matter of making sure that the proper models are being used for the situation at hand. Chess and Alpha Go are complicated, but not complex, systems. So are most sports. You can “force-solve” them, at least in theory.

Complicated systems benefit from skilled management and some expertise to operate: a good chess player will do better than a poor one, and clearly a skilled, fit footballer can execute a plan better than a wheezy novice — but in the right hands and given good instructions even a mediocre player can usually manage without catastrophe. While success will be partly a function of user’s skill and expertise, a bad player with a good plan may defeat a skilled player with a bad one.

Given enough processing power, complicated systems are predictable, determinative and calculable. They’re tame, not wicked problems.

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-'''[[Complicated system]]s''': Unlike [[simple system]]s, [[complicated system]]s require interaction with autonomous agents whose specific behaviour is beyond the user's control, and might be intended to defeat the user’s objective, but whose range of behaviour is entirely deterministic. Each autonomous agent’s range of possible actions and reactions can be predicted in advance. At least, in theory.
+[[Complicated system]]s require interaction with autonomous agents whose specific behaviour is beyond the user’s control, and might be intended to defeat the user’s objective, but whose ''range'' of behaviour is deterministic, rule-bound and [[known]] and can therefore be predicted in advance. You know you have a [[complicated system]] when it cleaves to a comprehensive set of axioms and rules, and thus it is a matter of making sure that the proper models are being used for the situation at hand. [[Chess]] and [[Alpha Go]] are [[Complicated system|complicated]], but not [[Complex systems|complex]], systems. So are most sports. You can “force-solve” them, at least in theory.
-For example chess — or, for that matter, any boardgame or sport.
+[[Complicated system]]s benefit from skilled management and ''some'' [[subject matter expert|expertise]] to operate: a good chess player will do better than a poor one, and clearly a skilled, fit footballer can execute a plan better than a wheezy novice — but in the right hands and given good instructions even a mediocre player can usually manage without catastrophe. While success will be partly a function of user’s skill and expertise, a bad player with a good plan may defeat a skilled player with a bad one.
-[[Complicated system]]s therefore benefit from skilled management and some [[subject matter expert|expertise]] to operate: a good chess player will do better than a poor one — a [[school-leaver from Bucharest]] with plenty of coffee and a [[playbook]] on her lap probably isn’t the droid you’re looking for — but in the right hands can usually be managed without catastrophe, though the degree of success will be a function of user’s skill and expertise.
+Given enough processing power, complicated systems are predictable, determinative and calculable. They’re [[tame problem|tame]], ''not'' [[wicked problem]]s.
-You know you have a [[complicated system]] when it cleaves to a comprehensive set of axioms and rules, and thus it is a matter of making sure that the proper models are being used for the situation at hand. [[Chess]] and [[Alpha Go]] are [[Complicated system|complicated]], but not [[Complex systems|complex]], systems. You can “force-solve” them, at least in theory.<ref>Do you hear that, {{author|Daniel Susskind}}?</ref> They are entirely predictable, determinative and calculable, given enough processing power. They’re [[tame problem|tame]], ''not'' [[wicked problem]]s.

Template:Complicated capsule: Difference between revisions

Revision as of 11:25, 3 April 2022

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