Talk:Bayesian reasoning

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The Monty Hall problem - how opening another door does not change the overall risk situation but just changes the probability of one door to one or zero. How you could get the same effect by having two doors and revealing one. Why human cognitive biases make us naturally bad at bayesian reasoning: anchoring effect, confirmation bias and so on . Bayesian reasoning as a way of explaining super forecasting (in terms of updating prior probabilities) The limits of Bayesian reasoning Bayesian reasoning applied to the Bayesian.