Lucy Letby: the conspiracy theory

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Wild allegations of conspiracy fly back and forth about Lucy Letby’s supporters. Either that they are in some kind of conspiracy, or that they are alleging one.

Mainly, they are levelled by commentators for the prosecution, about Ms Letby’s defence team, their vested interests and motivations. By contrast, the “miscarriage” argument presumes only perfectly ordinary human failings.

But if Mark McDonald is orchestrating a conspiracy, he has chosen a pretty rum way to do it. Let us just rehearse the main points of a conspiracy:

1. Deliberate deception: The “commonsense” narrative is a deliberate deception by persons with the means and motives to obscure the truth.
2. Secret knowledge: Conspirators may have “secret knowledge” and ulterior motives that are not available to outsiders, but may be inferred by those believing the conspiracy theory.
3. Agents, not systems: Outcomes are caused by malice, not complexity. They are manufactured by conspirators: they do not arise through system effects, coincidence, or error.
4. Scale: The outcome implies improbably deep, competent and effective confidential coordination among conspirators over extended periods.
5. Sincere confabulations: Sincere believers tend to “infer”' — that is, invent — facts to fill information gaps to be consistent with the conspiracy. Over time, these flimsy inferences harden into corroborative facts.
6. Unfalsifiability: The very lack of evidence of conspiracy is evidence of conspiracy. Evidence contradicting the conspiracy is a part of the conspiracy. Also, it is not falsifiable: evidence, whether it suggests “black” or “white”, is taken to confirm the theory. Confirmation bias is weaponised.

Firstly, Mr McDonald’s putative conspiracy — orchestrating a cabal of senior neonatologists from around the world into hoodwinking the world into believing a serial murderer is innocent — is not going awfully well, since Ms. Letby is currently in prison for fifteen whole-life terms, and has exhausted her formal rights of appeal.

Nor is it clear what his unstated ulterior motive might be. What does he, or this unpaid collection of eminent neonatologists, expect to get out of perverting the course of justice?

And in what sense has anyone kept anything secret? To the contrary, Mr McDonald has shipped a fair bit of professional criticism for courting publicity. This is, among barristers, really not the done thing. It is certainly not the done thing amongst secret conspirators.