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A world in which all outcomes are known is one where ''no-one wants to play anymore''. It is fully priced. Margins are at zero. There is no surprise; there is no risk; all punchlines are known. It is a life of noughts and crosses and not [[chess]], much less bridge or poker.<ref>''Tic-tac-toe'' to you, my American friends. The same will, in theory, one day be true of [[chess]] and [[go]] — but the calculations are exponentially harder.</ref> At every point during the game there is an optimal move and that includes the first move. If the optimal move is a [[known known]] (as it is in noughts and crosses, but is not ''yet'' in [[chess]]) the game is ''solved'': ''there is no point in playing''. There is an answer. The risk/reward outcome is already priced: ''nil'' This is not a competition of wits, but of memory and data processing power. That’s certainty, and it isn’t interesting. | A world in which all outcomes are known is one where ''no-one wants to play anymore''. It is fully priced. Margins are at zero. There is no surprise; there is no risk; all punchlines are known. It is a life of noughts and crosses and not [[chess]], much less bridge or poker.<ref>''Tic-tac-toe'' to you, my American friends. The same will, in theory, one day be true of [[chess]] and [[go]] — but the calculations are exponentially harder.</ref> At every point during the game there is an optimal move and that includes the first move. If the optimal move is a [[known known]] (as it is in noughts and crosses, but is not ''yet'' in [[chess]]) the game is ''solved'': ''there is no point in playing''. There is an answer. The risk/reward outcome is already priced: ''nil'' This is not a competition of wits, but of memory and data processing power. That’s certainty, and it isn’t interesting. | ||
[[Complex system]]s are not like that. They are [[non-linear]]. They do not have pre-defined boundaries. There is no common set of protocols; there are no agreed rules. The ecosystem is in perpetual flux. It is filled with independent systems and agents making their own independent decisions, each one of which alters the contours of the landscape. ''Everything is liable to change''. In a [[complex system]], an [[algorithm]] will not work. It will get in the way. You need ''experienced experts'' who can make educated guesses and provisional decisions based on incomplete information. You need people who are flexible, adaptable, and smart. You need people who are good at handling [[doubt]]. Doubt is not a regrettable externality: | [[Complex system]]s are not like that. They are [[non-linear]]. They do not have pre-defined boundaries. There is no common set of protocols; there are no agreed rules. The ecosystem is in perpetual flux. It is filled with independent systems and agents making their own independent decisions, each one of which alters the contours of the landscape. ''Everything is liable to change''. In a [[complex system]], an [[algorithm]] will not work. It will get in the way. You need ''experienced experts'' who can make educated guesses and provisional decisions based on incomplete information. You need people who are flexible, adaptable, and smart. ''You need people who are good at handling [[doubt]]''. Doubt is not a regrettable externality: it is the ''essence'' of the value proposition. ''Doubt is risk''. Without doubt, there is no reward. We should not seek to avoid, much less eliminate doubt. We should ''seek it out''. The person who succeeds in commerce is the one who is best able to handle ''doubt''. | ||
===Doubt as a self-enforcing moderator of extreme behaviour=== | ===Doubt as a self-enforcing moderator of extreme behaviour=== | ||