Doubt: Difference between revisions

===The [[commercial imperative]] of doubt===

{{col3|At the heart of the commerce is ''[[trust]]'' and ''[[credit]]'': the expectation that one will ''[[be a good egg]]''. This is the ravishing beauty of [[laissez-faire]]: almost alone among polities, it gets the alignment of [[Conflict of interest|interests]] right. It need not hope that actors are saints, or even that they will act out of public-spiritedness; indeed, it presumes they will not. The operating assumption of a market system is, “everyone for oneself.” ''There are no [[ally|allies]]''.  

===The [[complexity]]-appropriateness of doubt===

{{col3|[[Certainty]] is appropriate to a [[simple]] system. It is the stuff of [[algorithm]]; of formal logic, of if-''this''-then-''that'' statements; of an equation to be solved. Where you are ''certain'' you can deploy [[playbook]]s and [[runbook]]s, your machines run on autopilot, your people are scarce and your contract is little more than a [[service level agreement|schedule of works]].  

===Doubt as a self-enforcing moderator of extreme behaviour===

{{col3|Examples of “[[risk compensation]]” where the introduction of safety measures — which we may characterise as “enhancements to the ''certainty'' of safety” — lead to ''increased'' risk-taking are legion.<ref>Anti-lock breaks, seatbelts, speed limits, cycle helmets, ski helmets, skydiving safety equipment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_compensation.</ref> Where town planners have removed all traffic controls, signage and control, a dramatic ''reduction'' in speed and accidents has followed.<ref>An [https://web.archive.org/web/20150924012452/http://www.fietsberaad.nl/library/repository/bestanden/Evaluation%20Laweiplein.pdf evaluation] of the ''Laweiplein'' scheme in Drachten, Netherlands, which replaced a set of traffic lights with an open square with a roundabout and pedestrian crossings, found that traffic now flows more freely at a constant rate and with reduced congestion, shorter delays and improved capacity.</ref> People have a risk tolerance. If you reduce risk, they drive faster.

To aspire to certainty is wish for finality; completeness; the limits of our commitment to each other, and the arbitrary end of affairs we would be better served by continuing. If a relationship is productive now why end it? If a relationship is not, why prolong it? If it is not satisfactory, why not change it?<ref>For an excellent argument along these lines see {{Author|David Graeber}}, {{br|Debt: The First 5,000 Years}}</ref>}}

==={{t|Epistemology}} of [[certainty]]===

{{col3|And so we get down to philosophical nuts and bolts. Truth, free will, knowledge. May we take [[Descartes]] as read? The philosophy gets more interesting a little later on. Let me tell you my dirty little secret folks: ''I’m a relativist''.