Doubt: Difference between revisions

There are logical, psychological, commercial and philosophical grounds to protect it. Bear with me. Let us start at the top and work our way down to the [[elephants and turtles]].}}

===The [[commercial imperative]] of doubt===

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If you have to go to your contract to save your relationship, you’ve already lost it.}}

===The [[complexity]]-appropriateness of doubt===

{{col3|[[Certainty]] is appropriate to a [[simple]] system. It is the stuff of [[algorithm]]; of formal logic, of if-''this''-then-''that'' statements; of an equation to be solved. Where you are ''certain'' you can deploy [[playbook]]s and [[runbook]]s, your machines run on autopilot, your people are scarce and your contract is little more than a [[service level agreement|schedule of works]].  

In a [[complex system]], [[algorithm]]s do not reliably work. They get in the way. You need ''experienced experts'' who can make educated guesses and provisional decisions based on incomplete information. You need people who are flexible, adaptable, and smart. ''You need people who are good at handling doubt''. Doubt is not a regrettable externality: it is the ''essence'' of the value proposition. ''Doubt is risk''. Without doubt, there is no reward. We should not seek to avoid, much less eliminate doubt. We should ''seek it out''. The person who succeeds in commerce is the one who is best able to handle ''doubt''.}}

===Doubt as a self-enforcing moderator of extreme behaviour===

{{col3|Examples of “[[risk compensation]]” where the introduction of safety measures — which we may characterise as “enhancements to the ''certainty'' of safety” — lead to ''increased'' risk-taking are legion.<ref>Anti-lock breaks, seatbelts, speed limits, cycle helmets, ski helmets, skydiving safety equipment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk_compensation.</ref> Where town planners have removed all traffic controls, signage and control, a dramatic ''reduction'' in speed and accidents has followed.<ref>An [https://web.archive.org/web/20150924012452/http://www.fietsberaad.nl/library/repository/bestanden/Evaluation%20Laweiplein.pdf evaluation] of the ''Laweiplein'' scheme in Drachten, Netherlands, which replaced a set of traffic lights with an open square with a roundabout and pedestrian crossings, found that traffic now flows more freely at a constant rate and with reduced congestion, shorter delays and improved capacity.</ref> People have a risk tolerance. If you reduce risk, they drive faster.

To aspire to certainty is wish for finality; completeness; the limits of our commitment to each other, and the arbitrary end of affairs we would be better served by continuing. If a relationship is productive now why end it? If a relationship is not, why prolong it? If it is not satisfactory, why not change it?<ref>For an excellent argument along these lines see {{Author|David Graeber}}, {{br|Debt: The First 5,000 Years}}</ref>}}

==={{t|Epistemology}} of [[certainty]]===

{{col3|And so we get down to philosophical nuts and bolts. Truth, free will, knowledge. May we take [[Descartes]] as read? The philosophy gets more interesting a little later on. Let me tell you my dirty little secret folks: ''I’m a relativist''.