Template:M intro banking Minsky moment: Difference between revisions

Template:M intro banking Minsky moment (view source)

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 *'''Panic''': Usually triggered by something dramatic or symbolic: the sudden failure of a hedge fund, or some such, everyone stampedes for the exits.
-This still feels a little bit “[[Survivorship bias|survivor bias]]-y” — a story we construct in hindsight and select evidence for it in hindsight.
+Minsky’s prescription is a little conjurer magic to temper the baser instincts of the invisible hand: “apt intervention and institutional structures are necessary for market economies to be successful.”
-Cycles, like waves, are not discrete, but operate on a bigger, wider ocean with all kinds of cross-currents and perturbations making the market behave in unpredictable ways.
+But still, the concept of the Minsky moment and, really, the whole five-stage credit cycle — still feels a little bit neat, convenient, and “[[Survivorship bias|survivor bias]]-y” — a story we might construct in hindsight to explain what the hell just happened, selecting suitable evidence for it as we go with the iron certainty of hindsight. Cycles, like waves, are not discrete, but operate on and in a bigger ocean with all kinds of cross-currents and perturbations — intersecting credit cycles of their own — making the market behave in unpredictable ways.