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Numbers are under control. They ''behave''. The bend to the spreadsheet ’s will. | Numbers are under control. They ''behave''. The bend to the spreadsheet ’s will. | ||
Except, as David | Except, as [[David Viniar]]’s immortal words remind us, the events these numbers represent — the territory for which they are a map — are wont to have other ideas. | ||
There is a great difference between a rolling die and a stock market. A rolling die is a “[[nomological machine]]”: a carefully constrained, sealed environment designed specifically to yield the theoretical outcome. The map is, as far as engineering permits, materially identical to the territory. We can, indeed, generate an indistinguishable outcome purely by running the model with a random number generator. The machined dice, the flat, constrained surface — these are a representation of the reality, which is the hypothetical model, and not the other way around. A loaded die is a flawed machine. You don't chuck out the theory: you chuck out the equipment. | There is a great difference between a rolling die and a stock market. A rolling die is a “[[nomological machine]]”: a carefully constrained, sealed environment designed specifically to yield the theoretical outcome. The map is, as far as engineering permits, materially identical to the territory. We can, indeed, generate an indistinguishable outcome purely by running the model with a random number generator. The machined dice, the flat, constrained surface — these are a representation of the reality, which is the hypothetical model, and not the other way around. A loaded die is a flawed machine. You don't chuck out the theory: you chuck out the equipment. | ||