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{{a|podcasts|{{image|grail witch|jpg|“What makes you think she’s a witch?”}}}}{{quote| | {{a|podcasts|{{image|grail witch|jpg|“What makes you think she’s a witch?”}}}}{{quote| | ||
“We’ve found a witch. May we burn her?” | “We’ve found a witch. May we burn her?” | ||
:— | :— ''Monty Python and the Holy Grail''}} | ||
==== | ====On herd minds, groupthink and narrative biases==== | ||
{{drop|L|ucy Letby’s case}} is in the news. Those internet citizens who have taken more than a passing interest have divided into opposing camps. There are some for whom Lucy Letby is a cold-blooded monster. Others question the safety of her criminal conviction. Those with a passing acquaintance with the case tend to suppose she must be a monster, having been convicted of it. But those who take a closer look tend quickly to gravitate to an extreme: either they are horrified by the extent of her visceral wickedness or certain, beyond a reasonable doubt, that Lucy Letby is positively innocent of all charges, and even some kind of martyred saint. | |||
These two extremes — outright innocence and guilt beyond reasonable doubt — leave a wide range of ambivalent attitudes between. Bu humans like our narratives to tell us things about the world, and a narrative that says, “huh, who knows?” is not awfully helpful. It doesn’t tell us much about the world. | |||
It may offer little intellectual satisfaction, but it may be the best we can reasonably expect. | |||
The system has behaved in a way which renders Lucy Letby either a monster or scapegoat. There is no middle ground, in which she is an ordinary kid, with her pluses and minuses, virtues and failings, just like the rest of us: she is either angel or devil. | |||
Given the probabilities at play — 99% of us are neither angel or devil — giving Lucy Letby only these two choices is an injustice in itself. | |||
The problem with “conviction” and “innocence” narratives is that they become self-fulfilling | The problem with “conviction” and “innocence” narratives is that they become self-fulfilling: from either perspective you can panel-beat most subsequent information to suit that view. The hard-edged peripheral evidence we do have can and has been coloured through that lens. | ||
Here is BBC Reporter Judith Moritz, in a piece to camera, on reviewing Letby’s social media posts:{{quote| | |||
“Sparky, full of fun, popular — she looks like the life and soul of the party in these photos. I don’t know what Britain’s most prolific child killer should look like. ''I’m pretty sure it’s not this, though''.}}And then a few moments later.{{Quote|“She comes across as — mousy; a bit ''normal'' — you can’t really marry that with the enormity of what she’s been accused of.”}}Lucy Letby’s apparently vivacious personality and active social life, for example. If you have an open mind, this behaviour is ''normal''. It tells us nothing. It places Lucy Letby within a standard deviation of the mean. But once you are persuaded of her guilt it marks her out as a psychopath — ''corroborates'' and ''amplifies'' her wickedness. If you believe her to be innocent, that this information has been so rudely traduced only illustrates the single-mindedness with which our vicious system will crush an innocent, unsuspecting spirit. | |||
Similarly, that Lucy Letby searched online for the parents of the deceased is consistent with ''either'' breathtaking malevolence — if she is a serial killer — ''or'' affecting compassion — if she is not. But by itself, it is ''evidence'' of neither. We all Google individuals we meet in real life — even people we know we probably shouldn’t: this is perfectly normal behaviour. We are curious animals. | |||
So we must remember there is another active participant in our judgment here: our own cultural baggage. The mechanisms by which we process information are ''biases'' — [[confirmation bias]] — a well-documented logical fallacy where we frame any information to validate what we already believe — or its less-understood converse: [[ignore|''ignorance'' bias]],<ref>JC made this term up.</ref> where we tactically ''ignore'' information that does not support, or tends to contradict, our working theory. | |||
Both biases are in play whether we believe Lucy Letby is a serial killer, or the victim of a grave injustice. Both standpoints are equally ''emotive''. | |||
There is no comfortable centre to hold here. | |||
====Standpoint intersection ahoy==== | ====Standpoint intersection ahoy==== | ||
{{Drop|S|peaking of narratives}} there are many at play here. Criminal justice stands at the intersection of at least four discrete fields of intellectual enquiry: law, medicine, statistics and ethics. They are not [[The Structure of Scientific Revolutions|commensurate]] — each has its own rules, customs and institutions and authority in one does not commute to the others. In a perfect world their outcomes would converge, but the world is not perfect. There will be circumstances in which the correct legal outcome is not morally right, the correct moral outcome is not borne by the statistics, the statistics are at odds with our knowledge, and vice versa. There is little wonder good people get upset. | |||
There is even room for epistemology. You cannot but frame your understanding of the overall scenario through one or other of those prisms. Or a combination, but that is liable to lead to conflict. There is no transcendent, neutral frame of reference by which the others may be judged. Without a framework the territory is random, incoherent noise. | There is even room for epistemology. You cannot but frame your understanding of the overall scenario through one or other of those prisms. Or a combination, but that is liable to lead to conflict. There is no transcendent, neutral frame of reference by which the others may be judged. Without a framework the territory is random, incoherent noise. | ||
For the scenario is one that unusually uncertain, about which the prospect of consensus is unusually low. It is not even clear that there was a wrongful killing here, let alone by whom. | For the scenario is one that unusually uncertain, about which the prospect of consensus is unusually low. It is not even clear that there was a wrongful killing here, let alone by whom. | ||
====Substance, form and process==== | ====Substance, form and process==== |