Lucy Letby: Difference between revisions

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====On herd minds, groupthink and narrative biases====
====On herd minds, groupthink and narrative biases====
{{drop|L|ucy Letby’s case}} is in the news. Those with only a passing acquaintance tend to suppose that, having been convicted of the murder and attempted murder of multiple infants, the case is closed and she must be a monster. And she admitted it in a note, right? But look a bit closer and the picture is complicated. Depending on your filter, it becomes a matter of pure, calculated evil, or of breathtaking systemic injustice.  
{{drop|L|ucy Letby’s case}} is in the news. On 24 May 2024, the Court of Appeal denied Letby leave to appeal against her conviction. Neither the grounds for the appeal nor the reasons for refusal are yet public. On 10 June, her retrial for the attempted murder of “Child K” began in Manchester. But on 13 May 2024, ''New Yorker'' magazine published {{plainlink|https://wayback-api.archive.org/web/20240000000000*/https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/05/20/lucy-letby-was-found-guilty-of-killing-seven-babies-did-she-do-it|''A British Nurse Was Found Guilty of Killing Seven Babies. Did she do it?''}}, a 13,000-word investigative piece by Rachel Aviv that questioned the the safety of Letby’s original convictions. The piece was loosely geo-blocked in the UK, ostensibly to avoid contempt of court during the retrial. But it is not hard to find online, and it ran unedited in the New Yorker’s UK print edition, so there may be some canny “Streisand Effect” marketing at play here too. It raises its own questions about the practicality of ''sub judice'' rules in the age of the world-wide internet, but that is a discussion for another day.


These two extremes — guilt beyond reasonable doubt and outright innocence and victimhood  — leave untouched a range of ambivalent attitudes between them.  We like our narratives to tell us things about the world, and a perspective that says, “well, it’s complicated” doesn’t tell us much about the world. It isn’t useful. So few of us occupy that space.  
Those with a passing acquaintance of the case tend to suppose that, having been convicted of multiple infant murders, the case is closed and she must be a monster. She admitted everything in a note, right? But look a bit closer and the picture is complicated. The note is not the unequivocal confession it has been made out to be. There is no direct evidence. Each piece of circumstantial evidence, in isolation, is ambiguous. The strength of the case of conviction appears to have emerged from the preponderance of evidence, rather than subsisting in a particular smoking gun.
 
At this point there are two available narratives: Lucy Letby is either a person of pure, calculated evil, or the victim of a breathtaking miscarriage of justice. But these extremes leave untouched between them a vast range of ambivalent attitudes: We like our narratives to tell us things about the world, and a perspective that says, “well, it’s complicated” doesn’t tell us much about the world. It isn’t useful. So few of us occupy that space.  


JC will advance the position that we ''should''. While it may offer little intellectual satisfaction, it may be the best we can reasonably expect.  
JC will advance the position that we ''should''. While it may offer little intellectual satisfaction, it may be the best we can reasonably expect.  
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The system has behaved in a way which deprives this individual of a middle ground, in which she is an ordinary kid, with her pluses and minuses, virtues and failings, just like the rest of us: neither angel nor devil.   
The system has behaved in a way which deprives this individual of a middle ground, in which she is an ordinary kid, with her pluses and minuses, virtues and failings, just like the rest of us: neither angel nor devil.   


Given the probabilities at play — 99% of us are neither angel or devil — allowing Lucy Letby only these two options is an injustice in itself.  
Given the probabilities at play — 99% of us are neither pure angels or devils, but somewhere along the continuum between — allowing Lucy Letby to sit at only one or other of these extremities seems an injustice in itself.  
====Confirmation bias====
{{drop|T|he problem with}} “angel” and “devil” narratives is that they become self-fulfilling: once you’ve settled on one, you can panel-beat most subsequent information to suit that view. The hard-edged peripheral evidence we do have abut Lucy Letby can and has been coloured through that lens. For example, Letby’s social media activity: here is BBC reporter Judith Moritz, in a piece to camera, on reviewing Letby’s social media posts:
 
{{quote|
“Sparky, full of fun, popular — she looks like the life and soul of the party in these photos. I don’t know what Britain’s most prolific child killer should look like — ''I’m pretty sure it’s not this, though''.}}
 
And then a few moments later:
 
{{Quote|“She comes across as — mousy; a bit ''normal'' — you can’t really marry that with the enormity of what she’s been accused of.”}}


The problem with “conviction” and “innocence” narratives is that they become self-fulfilling: from either perspective you can panel-beat most subsequent information to suit that view. The hard-edged peripheral evidence we do have can and has been coloured through that lens.  
If — and ''only'' if — we are already persuaded of her guilt, her vivacious personality and active social life ''notwithstanding this'' mark her out as a psychopath. It ''corroborates'' and ''amplifies'' her wickedness. If we believe her to be innocent, that she has been convicted ''despite'' her vivacious personality and active social life — what sort of serial killer is like that? — only illustrates the single-mindedness with which a vicious criminal system will crush an innocent, unsuspecting spirit.  


Here is BBC Reporter Judith Moritz, in a piece to camera, on reviewing Letby’s social media posts:{{quote|
But from a neutral perspective, this behaviour is ''normal''. It tells us nothing. It places Lucy Letby in that ordinary space, with the rest of us, within a standard deviation of the mean. It neither proves nor disproves ''anything''. There have been very, very few serial-killer nurses. We have no evidence about what, as a rule, they are like. In any case, it is neither direct nor circumstantial evidence of her perpetration of the crimes with which she has been accused.
“Sparky, full of fun, popular — she looks like the life and soul of the party in these photos. I don’t know what Britain’s most prolific child killer should look like. ''I’m pretty sure it’s not this, though''.}}And then a few moments later.{{Quote|“She comes across as — mousy; a bit ''normal'' — you can’t really marry that with the enormity of what she’s been accused of.”}}In this way is Lucy Letby’s apparently vivacious personality and active social life, taken as validating her wickedness. but if you have an open mind, this behaviour is ''normal''. It tells us nothing. It places Lucy Letby in that ordinary space, with the rest of us, within a standard deviation of the mean.


If and ''only'' if you are already persuaded of her guilt, it marks her out as a psychopath. It ''corroborates'' and ''amplifies'' her wickedness. If you believe her to be innocent, that this information has been so rudely traduced only illustrates the single-mindedness with which our vicious system will crush an innocent, unsuspecting spirit.  
In the language of the criminal law, then, this social media activity has low “probative” content it doesn’t prove anything — but high “prejudicial” value — it colours any existing preconceptions a jury might hold. A court may exclude this evidence if “its prejudicial effect is out of proportion to its probative value”.<ref>Section 126, Criminal Justice Act 2003, which (per explanatory notes) preserves the common law power for the court to exclude evidence where its prejudicial effect is out of proportion to its probative value. </ref>


Similarly, that Lucy Letby searched online for the parents of the deceased is consistent with ''either'' breathtaking malevolence — if she is a serial killer — ''or'' affecting compassion — if she is not. But by itself, it is ''evidence'' of neither. We all Google individuals we meet in real life — even people we know we probably shouldn’t: this is perfectly normal behaviour. We are curious animals.
Similarly, that Lucy Letby searched online for the parents of the deceased is consistent with ''either'' breathtaking malevolence — if she is a serial killer — ''or'' affecting compassion — if she is not. By itself, it is ''evidence'' of neither. We all Google individuals we meet in real life — even people we know we probably shouldn’t: this is perfectly normal behaviour. We are curious animals.


So we must remember there is  another active participant in our judgment here: our own cultural baggage. The mechanisms by which we process information are ''biases'' — [[confirmation bias]] — a well-documented logical fallacy where we frame any information to validate what we already believe — or its less-understood converse: [[ignore|''ignorance'' bias]],<ref>JC made this term up.</ref> where we tactically ''ignore'' information that does not support, or tends to contradict, our working theory.  
The mechanisms by which we process information are ''biases'' — [[confirmation bias]] — a well-documented logical fallacy where we frame any information to validate what we already believe — or its less-understood converse: [[ignore|''ignorance'' bias]],<ref>JC made this term up.</ref> where we tactically ''ignore'' information that does not support, or tends to contradict, our working theory.  


Both biases are in play whether we believe Lucy Letby is a serial killer, or the victim of a grave injustice. Both standpoints are equally ''emotive''.  
Both biases are in play whether we believe Lucy Letby is a serial killer, or the victim of a grave injustice. Both standpoints are equally ''emotive''.  

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