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====The commercial imperative of doubt====
====The commercial imperative of doubt====
{{drop|A|t the heart}} of commerce is ''[[trust]]'' and ''[[credit]]'': the expectation that one will ''[[be a good egg]]''. This is the ravishing beauty of [[laissez-faire]]: almost alone among polities, it gets the alignment of [[Conflict of interest|interests]] right. It need not hope that actors are saints, or even that they will act out of public-spiritedness; indeed, it presumes they will not. The operating assumption of a market system is, “everyone for themselves.” ''There are no [[ally|allies]]''.  
{{drop|A|t the heart}} of commerce is ''[[trust]]'' and ''[[credit]]'': the expectation that one will ''[[be a good egg]]''. This is the ravishing beauty of [[laissez-faire]]: almost alone among polities, it gets the alignment of [[Conflict of interest|interests]] right. It need not hope that actors are saints, or even that they will act out of public-spiritedness; indeed, it presumes they will not. The operating assumption of a market system is, “everyone for themselves.” ''There are no [[ally|allies]]''. <Ref>A strand of crypto-millenarianism aspires to reconstruct the market without the need for trust. This is not the place to discuss it — [[JC]] has done [[Bitcoin is Venice|elsewhere]] — beyond saying it is wishfully bonkers.</ref>


Yet, through the magic of the [[iterated prisoner’s dilemma]], we are nonetheless incentivised to ''do the right thing'': the long-term payoff of repeated co-operation grossly outweighs the short-term bump of a single defection. We build not transactions, but ''relationships''. Not ''goals of reward'', but ''systems of trust''. As they develop, relationships grow: the dinks and scuffs we sustain along the way toughen up: if we manage them well, our relationships grow stronger. Relationships are, in this way, [[anti-fragile]]. We gain from being vulnerable. We have to put ourselves at risk to earn a greater reward.
Yet, through the magic of the [[iterated prisoner’s dilemma]], we are nonetheless incentivised to ''do the right thing'': the long-term payoff of repeated co-operation greatly outweighs the short-term bump of a single defection. We should therefore build for and measure over the long term: not transactions, but ''relationships''. Not ''[[SMART|goals]]'', but ''[[systems theory|systems]]''.  


Relationships develop as ''markets'' develop, as ''technology'' develops, as ''competitors'' develop and as ''threats'' develop. Markets, technology, competitors and threats ''interact''. The landscape shape-shifts. This is [[complex]], [[non-linear]] and [[unpredictable]]. We do not yet know where we are going. A contract which tries to anticipate and codify the future only ''ossifies'' it: in presuming our present boundaries are fixed, it commits us to just one kind of certainty: ''[[obsolescence]]''. It entrenches perspectives; binds us to methods which will become outdated. It ''blinds'' us to new ones which will be resolutely better.  
As they develop, relationships grow: the dinks and scuffs we sustain along the way toughen us up: if we manage them thoughtfully, they strengthen our relationships. Relationships are, in this way, [[anti-fragile]]. We gain from being vulnerable to one another over time. We thrive on [[social indebtedness]]. By putting ourselves in each other’s hands we each stand to earn a greater reward. There is no mathematics about this: we cannot measure or project it. We cannot monetise it. But it is true.
 
{{Drop|R|elationships develop as}} ''markets'' develop, as ''technology'' develops, as ''competitors'' develop and as ''threats'' develop. Markets, technology, competitors and threats ''interact''. The landscape shape-shifts. This is [[complex]], [[non-linear]] and [[unpredictable]]. We do not yet know where we are going. A contract which tries to anticipate and codify the future only ''ossifies'' it: in presuming our present boundaries are fixed, it commits us to just one kind of certainty: ''[[obsolescence]]''. It entrenches perspectives; binds us to methods which will become outdated. It ''blinds'' us to new ones which will be resolutely better.  


A yen for [[certainty]] ''fossilises'' our commercial expectations on the day we form them.  
A yen for [[certainty]] ''fossilises'' our commercial expectations on the day we form them.  


Worse yet, it encourages those already in relationships to consider matters settled; impervious to improvement — even to ''discussion''. They might even ''avoid'' talking to each other, for fear of prejudicing their carefully constructed legal “protections”.<ref>Often unjustifiably. See: [[estoppel by waiver]].</ref> They may even feel, without [[Legal]]’s sanction, they ''cannot''. Things are at a pretty pass when market counterparties avoid talking to each other.
Worse yet, it encourages those already in relationships to consider matters settled; impervious to improvement — even to ''discussion''. They might even ''avoid'' talking to each other, for fear of prejudicing their carefully constructed legal “protections”.<ref>Often unjustifiably. See: [[estoppel by waiver]].</ref> They may even feel, without [[Legal]]’s sanction, they ''cannot''.  
 
This is a poor outcome. If there is a problem, ''get on the phone''. ''Talk''. Work the relationship. ''Reinforce'' the capital you have so painstakingly built. In a [[positive-sum game|positive-sum relationship]], each party’s best outcome ''is the other’s wellbeing''. The longer our partner lingers, ''the more we can dance''.<ref>There is an echo of [[Chuck|Chuck Prince]]’s notorious statement here, I realise.</ref> The value of a relationship is a function of ''time''. This is ''logically true'' for any relationship whose present value is greater than zero. Prolonging it is the best outcome.  


Any relationship you can’t make positive, you should end now and be done with it. Why wait?
But things are at a pretty pass when merchant and customer avoid talking to each other to keep their lawyers happy. If there is a problem, ''get on the phone''. ''Talk''. Work the relationship. ''Reinforce'' the capital you have so painstakingly built. In a [[positive-sum game|positive-sum relationship]], each party’s best outcome ''is the other’s wellbeing''. The longer our partner lingers, ''the more we can dance''.<ref>There is an echo of [[Chuck|Chuck Prince]]’s notorious statement here, I realise.</ref> The value of a relationship is a function of ''time''. This is ''logically true'' for any relationship whose present value is greater than zero. Prolonging it is the best outcome. (Any relationship you can’t make positive, you should end. ''Be done with it''. Why wait?)


Here, doubt is the best motivating factor; the comforting lurch towards [[certainty]] the worst impulse. An unforeseen scenario presents you with a dilemma. How you react to it might affect your client. What to do? Do you ask your client, or just check the [[verbiage]] and, if the coast is clear, carry on?  
An unforeseen scenario presents you with a dilemma. How you react to it might affect your client. What to do? Do you ask your client, or just check the [[verbiage]] and, if the coast is clear, carry on?  


The best answer will rarely issue from a [[legal eagle]]’s beak: “well, why in God’s name are you asking ''me''? Shouldn’t you ask your ''client''?”
In case of problem, doubt is the best motivating factor; a lurch towards abstract [[certainty]] the worst impulse.


For, really, what use is a clause your legal teams hammered out 10 years ago in getting to the heart of the matter? If, now, your client would ''not'' like you to behave in this way, what difference does it make, to your ongoing relationship, that an ancient document says that you ''may''? Or, for that matter, ''vice versa''?<ref>Much more likely, [[the contract is silent|it ''won’t'' say you ''can’t'',]] which doesn’t really help anyone.</ref>  
For, really, what use is a clause your legal teams hammered out 10 years ago in getting to the heart of the matter? If, now, your client would ''not'' like you to behave in this way, what difference does it make, to your ongoing relationship, that an ancient document says that you ''may''? Or, for that matter, ''vice versa''?<ref>Much more likely, [[the contract is silent|it ''won’t'' say you ''can’t'',]] which doesn’t really help anyone.</ref>  

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