Texas sharpshooter: Difference between revisions

Created page with "{{a|design|}}The famous fallacy of probabilistic reasoning. If you happen upon an event which, in the abstract is highly improbable at random, there is a tendency to impute foul play. But at the point where the event has already happened it is not a random event but ''history''. Treating it as a contingency can be misleading. Predicting that a Mr Bentos of Cheltenham will win next week’s lottery is hard. Predicting that he won ''last'' week’s is a cinch. This can..."