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Texas sharpshooter: Difference between revisions
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Amwelladmin (talk | contribs) (Created page with "{{a|design|}}The famous fallacy of probabilistic reasoning. If you happen upon an event which, in the abstract is highly improbable at random, there is a tendency to impute foul play. But at the point where the event has already happened it is not a random event but ''history''. Treating it as a contingency can be misleading. Predicting that a Mr Bentos of Cheltenham will win next week’s lottery is hard. Predicting that he won ''last'' week’s is a cinch. This can...") Tags: Mobile edit Mobile web edit Advanced mobile edit |
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{{a| | {{a|stats|}}The famous fallacy of probabilistic reasoning. If you happen upon an event which, in the abstract is highly improbable at random, there is a tendency to impute foul play. But at the point where the event has already happened it is not a random event but ''history''. Treating it as a contingency can be misleading. | ||
Predicting that a Mr Bentos of Cheltenham will win next week’s lottery is hard. Predicting that he won ''last'' week’s is a cinch. | Predicting that a Mr Bentos of Cheltenham will win next week’s lottery is hard. Predicting that he won ''last'' week’s is a cinch. | ||