Uncertain
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Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics
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Uncertain
/ʌnˈsɜːtn/ (adj.)
Of a potential future state, not susceptible to prediction using mathematical tools or probabilities. So, neither deterministic nor stochastic. Not even random.
Compare with risk.
Uncertainty is the state of a complex system and, therefore, of most of the world.
It is a different thing from a risk which is a calculable thing, using probabilities. If I spin the barrel of my revolver and hold it to my temple there is a risk the chamber will house a bullet. It will be measured in sixths.
On the other hand, the long-term effects of artificial general intelligence (AGI) on society? Uncertain. This we cannot compute. We don’t even know there will be such a thing.
Interestingly — tellingly — mathematicians don’t even have a concept for “uncertain”. In the mathematical universe things are either “deterministic” or “stochastic”. If things are uncertain there is no mathematics to be done: it is useless. No wonder, really, that mathematicians don’t have a concept for it.
This leads those in applied disciplines that depend on logic and mathematics (such as computer programming) to forget that there is such a thing as uncertainty. Given that the world, generally, is complex and uncertain, this is quite the oversight.
If an effective altruist rabbits on to you about the expected value of his tithe upon the generations unborn, slap him gently on the chops and ask if he had calculated the expected value of that. It may be the most valuable thing anyone has ever done to him.
See also
- JC’s twin essays on doubt and certainty
- Deterministic
- Stochastic
- Conway’s Game of Life
- Systems theory
- Effective altruism