There is no data from the future: Difference between revisions
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{{ | {{Wmc|Trajektorie eines Doppelpendels.gif|Something simple but utterly unpredictable, yesterday. It is quite entrancing, isn’t it? Even though it is just a gif.}} | ||
}}Something that should be so utterly obvious it need not be said, but which nevertheless forms the backbone of the [[Past results are no guarantee of future performance|most common disclaimer on the planet]]. That we know only what we know, and cannot know what comes next, is a lesson that should have been beaten into us — with fables such as the [[inductive turkey]] who gets quite the surprise come Christmas, the [[jointed pendulum]], the disastrous history of the financial markets — but which has been underestimated by reductionist types who labour under the illusion — ''delusion'', really — that future states of the world can somehow be extrapolated for past ones. | }}Something that should be so utterly obvious it need not be said, but which nevertheless forms the backbone of the [[Past results are no guarantee of future performance|most common disclaimer on the planet]]. That we know only what we know, and cannot know what comes next, is a lesson that should have been beaten into us — with fables such as the [[inductive turkey]] who gets quite the surprise come Christmas, the [[jointed pendulum]], the disastrous history of the financial markets — but which has been underestimated by reductionist types who labour under the illusion — ''delusion'', really — that future states of the world can somehow be extrapolated for past ones. | ||
{{sa}} | {{sa}} | ||
{{Gb|[[The past is a different country]]<li>[[Past results are no guarantee of future performance]] | |||
<Li>The [[Quickening]]<li>[[Backtesting]]<li>[[Profound ontological uncertainty]]}} | |||
Revision as of 06:50, 26 September 2024
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Something that should be so utterly obvious it need not be said, but which nevertheless forms the backbone of the most common disclaimer on the planet. That we know only what we know, and cannot know what comes next, is a lesson that should have been beaten into us — with fables such as the inductive turkey who gets quite the surprise come Christmas, the jointed pendulum, the disastrous history of the financial markets — but which has been underestimated by reductionist types who labour under the illusion — delusion, really — that future states of the world can somehow be extrapolated for past ones.