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Say what you like about the neocons, but this, from [[Donald Rumsfeld]] was a modern classic: | Say what you like about the neocons, but this, from [[Donald Rumsfeld]] was a modern classic: | ||
:''Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are [[Known known - Risk Article|known knowns]]; there are things we know we know. We also know there are [[known unknown - Risk Article|known unknowns]]; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also [[unknown unknown - Risk Article|unknown unknown]]s—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.'' | :''Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are [[Known known - Risk Article|known knowns]]; there are things we know we know. We also know there are [[known unknown - Risk Article|known unknowns]]; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also [[unknown unknown - Risk Article|unknown unknown]]s—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.'' | ||
===Rumsfeld’s knowns and unknowns=== | |||
*'''{{risk|known known}}''': the easy stuff; the stuff of [[service catalog|service catalogs]] and [[Risk taxonomy - Risk Article|risk taxonomies]]; | |||
*'''{{risk|known unknown}}''': the stuff you know about but can’t control. | |||
*'''{{risk|unknown unknown}}''': the [[black swan]]s. This is where the risk is most acute, precisely because your risk taxonomy, with 20:20 hindsight, is ''guaranteed'' to miss these altogether. | |||
Not included (because perhaps it doesn't seem to make much sense at first) is the '''{{risk|unknown known}}''', but before you write this off, well - see [[Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999]] for the sorts of things a well-ordered market can forget over sixty odd years. | |||
Revision as of 14:55, 21 May 2019
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Risk Anatomy™
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Say what you like about the neocons, but this, from Donald Rumsfeld was a modern classic:
- Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.
Rumsfeld’s knowns and unknowns
- known known: the easy stuff; the stuff of service catalogs and risk taxonomies;
- known unknown: the stuff you know about but can’t control.
- unknown unknown: the black swans. This is where the risk is most acute, precisely because your risk taxonomy, with 20:20 hindsight, is guaranteed to miss these altogether.
Not included (because perhaps it doesn't seem to make much sense at first) is the unknown known, but before you write this off, well - see Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999 for the sorts of things a well-ordered market can forget over sixty odd years.