Black swan

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The thing that none of your doctrines of precedent, risk taxonomies, policies, playbooks, procedures, and the other manifestations of organisational scar tissue can possibly equip you to deal with.

Validation of the truth, universally acknowledged in all quarters but those inhabited by upper management, that past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Also the title of a bombastic but entertaining book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

And a small cafe on the crest of a hill on the road from Christchurch to Akaroa, but I might be imagining that.

See also

• Taxonomy
• Doctrine of precedent (a.k.a. stare decisis)
• Playbook
• The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable — Nassim Nicholas Taleb
• Rework — Jason Fried