There is no data from the future: Difference between revisions
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{{a|devil| | |||
[[File:Trajektorie eines Doppelpendels.gif|450px|thumb|center|Something simple but utterly unpredictable, yesterday]] | |||
}}Something that should be so utterly obvious it need not be said, but which nevertheless forms the backbone of the [[Past results are no guarantee of future performance|most common disclaimer on the planet]]. That we know only what we know, and cannot know what comes next, is a lesson that should have been beaten into us — with fables such as the [[inductive turkey]] who gets quite the surprise come Christmas, the [[jointed pendulum]], the disastrous history of the financial markets — but which has been underestimated by reductionist types who labour under the illusion — ''delusion'', really — that future states of the world can somehow be extrapolated for past ones. | |||
{{sa}} | {{sa}} | ||
*[[Past results are no guarantee of future performance]] | |||
*The [[Quickening]] | *The [[Quickening]] | ||
*[[Backtesting]] | *[[Backtesting]] | ||
*[[Profound ontological uncertainty]] | *[[Profound ontological uncertainty]] | ||
{{todo}} | {{todo}} | ||
Revision as of 10:36, 6 October 2020
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Something that should be so utterly obvious it need not be said, but which nevertheless forms the backbone of the most common disclaimer on the planet. That we know only what we know, and cannot know what comes next, is a lesson that should have been beaten into us — with fables such as the inductive turkey who gets quite the surprise come Christmas, the jointed pendulum, the disastrous history of the financial markets — but which has been underestimated by reductionist types who labour under the illusion — delusion, really — that future states of the world can somehow be extrapolated for past ones.