Attack and defence: Difference between revisions
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It struck the JC while watching the 2022 World Cup Final that there is a large asymmetry between how we evaluate attack and defence. The final will be remembered for Lionel Messi, yes, but also for 23-year-old Kilian Mbappé’s hat-trick — the first in a World Cup final since Geoff Hurst’s in 1966. | It struck the JC while watching the 2022 World Cup Final that there is a large asymmetry between how we evaluate attack and defence. The final will be remembered for Lionel Messi, yes, but also for 23-year-old Kilian Mbappé’s hat-trick — the first in a World Cup final since Geoff Hurst’s in 1966. | ||
It is interesting to compare ''coverage'' of Mbappé’s performance — breathless — with that of Argentine defender Nicolás | It is interesting to compare ''coverage'' of Mbappé’s performance — ''breathless'' — with that of Argentine defender Nicolás Otamendi’s — qualified. | ||
The common consensus: Otamendi had a solid game, but made one big mistake, giving away the penalty that brought France back into the game. Mbappé, on the other hand was more or less invisible for 80 minutes, but sparked to life ten minutes from the end, scoring a hat-trick to take the match to penalties. | |||
Yet Otamendi’s rating were around 5; Mbappé’s between 9 and 10. | Yet Otamendi’s rating were around 5; Mbappé’s between 9 and 10. That two of Mbappé’s three goals were penalties did not dim the papers’ appreciation. The fact that the Argentine defence so dominated France that two of its forwards (Giroud and Dembélé) were replaced before half-time seems not to have helped Otamendi. | ||
Interesting note: despite the widespread use of Enhanced Football Intelligence — every player in the tournament was GPS tracked and data exists for number, location and success rate of passes, tackles and touch rates — not one of the media ratings made reference to it. | Interesting note: despite the widespread use of Enhanced Football Intelligence — every player in the tournament was GPS tracked and data exists for number, location and success rate of passes, tackles and touch rates — not one of the media ratings made reference to it. | ||
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===Poor old Giroud=== | ===Poor old Giroud=== | ||
It is worth comparing Mbappé’s | It is worth comparing Mbappé’s with poor old Olivier Giroud, substituted off after 40 minutes. | ||
“Seethed after humiliating early substitution but in truth the game had completely passed him by. 5” said the Guardian. | |||
“Slightly lucky at one point not to give away a penalty and so ineffective up front he did not make it to half-time. 5” opined the Express. | |||
“A miserable final for the former Arsenal man as he was subbed before half-time,” said the Express, before awarding the poor chap 3. | |||
''L’Équipe'' was so outraged that it refused to rate him at all. | |||
If you aren’t on the park, you can’t stick the ball in the net — but you can still get booked, as the hapless Giroud found out later. | |||
===Relative cost=== | ===Relative cost=== | ||
The ten top-paid ''defenders'' in the world earn between £12m and £18m a year.<ref>https://www.johnfyucha.com/2021/12/highest-paid-defenders.html</ref> The top paid footballers earn between £20m and £35m, and most are strikers.<ref>https://www.johnfyucha.com/2022/10/top-10-highest-paid-footballers-in-2022.html</ref> Not one is a defender. | |||
The point here is not to challenge these ratings but note the different success criteria for attackers compared to defenders. The ''payoffs'' are asymmetrical: A defender must put in a 90 minutes shift. A striker can piss about for half the game as long as she is canny enough to get on the end of at least one cross before the final whistle she will still be remembered as a hero. | The point here is not to challenge these ratings but note the different success criteria for attackers compared to defenders. The ''payoffs'' are asymmetrical: A defender must put in a 90 minutes shift. A striker can piss about for half the game as long as she is canny enough to get on the end of at least one cross before the final whistle she will still be remembered as a hero. | ||
You can — as the Argentinians did — shut the brightest star in football’s firmament out of a world cup final for 80 minutes and get 4; you can ''be'' shut out for that time by a not-especially notable centre back (who is apparently playing poorly!) and get a ten. | You can — as the Argentinians did — shut the brightest star in football’s firmament out of a world cup final for 80 minutes and get 4; you can ''be'' shut out for that time by a not-especially notable centre back (who is apparently playing poorly!) and get a ten. | ||
It seems like there should be an arbitrage here: one should pay ''more'' for quality defending — it’s cheaper, and definitely better value for money than a fancy-Dan striker who doesn’t do much for most of the game. | |||
===On attack and defence=== | |||
Yes; this is an anecdote; but it a representative one. It translates to other scenarios with an “attack” and “defence” component. Like financial services. But here the payoff is asymmetrical the ''other'' way: If the business of banking is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Then “attack” is the actually unglamorous business of picking up pennies; “defence” is the risk management job of making sure you are not hit by a steamroller. | |||
If you are Kilian Mbappé one well-timed volley can bring you immortality, this is almost never going to happen to a salesguy. ''Unless he blows up''. You would most likely not have heard of Nick Leeson, John Meriwether, Jeff Skilling, [[Bernie Madoff]], [[Archegos|Bill Huang]] or Gabe Plotkin ''had they not blown up''. Credit Suisse made USD$20m per year from [[Archegos]]; they lost $US$5.5bn on it ''overnight''. | |||
The business of ''preventing'' Mbappé’s immortality requires a ninety minute shift and consistent but unglamorous execution and no-one is likely to remember you, either. Unless you fuck up. And then you may be assured Michael Lewis will be optioning books about you to Hollywood. | |||
Revision as of 00:42, 24 December 2022
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“On 18 December 2022, he fouled Randal Kolo Muani to give away the penalty for France’s opening goal in the final, where Argentina eventually won 4–2 in the penalty shoot-out after the match ended 3–3 at extra-time, to win the World Cup.”
- — Wikipedia, Nicolás Otamendi
“Mbappé became only the second player in history to score a hat-trick in a World Cup final, scoring three goals against Argentina in the 2022 World Cup final. Argentina led 2–0 with just over ten minutes remaining before Mbappé scored twice in two minutes, the second from a volley after playing a one-two.”
- — Wikipedia, Kilian Mbappé
It is amazing what you remember.
It struck the JC while watching the 2022 World Cup Final that there is a large asymmetry between how we evaluate attack and defence. The final will be remembered for Lionel Messi, yes, but also for 23-year-old Kilian Mbappé’s hat-trick — the first in a World Cup final since Geoff Hurst’s in 1966.
It is interesting to compare coverage of Mbappé’s performance — breathless — with that of Argentine defender Nicolás Otamendi’s — qualified.
The common consensus: Otamendi had a solid game, but made one big mistake, giving away the penalty that brought France back into the game. Mbappé, on the other hand was more or less invisible for 80 minutes, but sparked to life ten minutes from the end, scoring a hat-trick to take the match to penalties.
Yet Otamendi’s rating were around 5; Mbappé’s between 9 and 10. That two of Mbappé’s three goals were penalties did not dim the papers’ appreciation. The fact that the Argentine defence so dominated France that two of its forwards (Giroud and Dembélé) were replaced before half-time seems not to have helped Otamendi.
Interesting note: despite the widespread use of Enhanced Football Intelligence — every player in the tournament was GPS tracked and data exists for number, location and success rate of passes, tackles and touch rates — not one of the media ratings made reference to it.
| Media | Otamendi | Mbappé | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guardian | 6 | 9 | Otamendi: Like his team, he had looked comfortable until Kolo Muani sorely exposed him in a one-on-one.
Mbappé: Out of the game until turning it on its head and becoming first final hat-trick scorer since Geoff Hurst. |
| Sky Sports | 6 | 9 | Otamendi: Was playing so well - and then gave away a daft penalty to allow France back into the game.
Mbappé: It felt a false start for 80 minutes but then the Grandmaster produced another work of art. |
| Express | 5 | 9 | Otamendi: Clumsy late penalty cost a straightforward win - the needless arm grapple gave Kolo Muani reason to tumble.
Mbappé: Squeezed his first penalty past Martinez then came alive. Second brilliantly taken, the hat-trick emphatic. |
| Telegraph | 4 | 10 | Otamendi: Stupid mistake to give away the penalty against Muani as the 34-year-old had barely been troubled for 60 minutes by the French attack.
Mbappé: One of the finest World Cup performances in history. Struggling to generate a spark for 60 minutes, then the supercharger came on and he hit a hattrick. |
| Sun | 6 | 9 | Otamendi: His brain-fade moment turned a victory cruise into a desperate fight for survival and opened the door for one of the greatest games of all time.
Mbappé: Zero to hero. Incredible. Was he playing in the first half? Looked like he’d picked the biggest game of his career to have the worst day of his life. Then….remarkable. |
| Average | 5.5 | 9.2 | Otamendi: Good game, one error, but what a doozy.
Mbappé: Not sure he was even playing for an hour and a half, but came right at the end. |
Poor old Giroud
It is worth comparing Mbappé’s with poor old Olivier Giroud, substituted off after 40 minutes.
“Seethed after humiliating early substitution but in truth the game had completely passed him by. 5” said the Guardian.
“Slightly lucky at one point not to give away a penalty and so ineffective up front he did not make it to half-time. 5” opined the Express.
“A miserable final for the former Arsenal man as he was subbed before half-time,” said the Express, before awarding the poor chap 3.
L’Équipe was so outraged that it refused to rate him at all.
If you aren’t on the park, you can’t stick the ball in the net — but you can still get booked, as the hapless Giroud found out later.
Relative cost
The ten top-paid defenders in the world earn between £12m and £18m a year.[1] The top paid footballers earn between £20m and £35m, and most are strikers.[2] Not one is a defender.
The point here is not to challenge these ratings but note the different success criteria for attackers compared to defenders. The payoffs are asymmetrical: A defender must put in a 90 minutes shift. A striker can piss about for half the game as long as she is canny enough to get on the end of at least one cross before the final whistle she will still be remembered as a hero.
You can — as the Argentinians did — shut the brightest star in football’s firmament out of a world cup final for 80 minutes and get 4; you can be shut out for that time by a not-especially notable centre back (who is apparently playing poorly!) and get a ten.
It seems like there should be an arbitrage here: one should pay more for quality defending — it’s cheaper, and definitely better value for money than a fancy-Dan striker who doesn’t do much for most of the game.
On attack and defence
Yes; this is an anecdote; but it a representative one. It translates to other scenarios with an “attack” and “defence” component. Like financial services. But here the payoff is asymmetrical the other way: If the business of banking is picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. Then “attack” is the actually unglamorous business of picking up pennies; “defence” is the risk management job of making sure you are not hit by a steamroller.
If you are Kilian Mbappé one well-timed volley can bring you immortality, this is almost never going to happen to a salesguy. Unless he blows up. You would most likely not have heard of Nick Leeson, John Meriwether, Jeff Skilling, Bernie Madoff, Bill Huang or Gabe Plotkin had they not blown up. Credit Suisse made USD$20m per year from Archegos; they lost $US$5.5bn on it overnight.
The business of preventing Mbappé’s immortality requires a ninety minute shift and consistent but unglamorous execution and no-one is likely to remember you, either. Unless you fuck up. And then you may be assured Michael Lewis will be optioning books about you to Hollywood.