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Backtesting: Difference between revisions
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:'''''Backtesting''' is the process of testing a trading strategy on relevant historical data to ensure its viability before the trader risks any actual capital. A trader can simulate the trading of a strategy over an appropriate period of time and analyze the results for the levels of profitability and risk.'' | :'''''Backtesting''' is the process of testing a trading strategy on relevant historical data to ensure its viability before the trader risks any actual capital. A trader can simulate the trading of a strategy over an appropriate period of time and analyze the results for the levels of profitability and risk.'' | ||
Which makes it sound sensible, measured, prudent and not the systematically moronic idea it is. | Which makes it sound sensible, measured, prudent and not the [[Snake oil|systematically moronic]] idea it is. | ||
Backtesting is one of those cognitive | Backtesting is one of those [[cognitive dissonance]]s that has passed, for now, into embarrassed history, but is sure to re-emerge the moment the markets regain their giddily optimistic resting state. Markets are fueled by the self-confident delusions of vain men. | ||
Once upon a time a resourceful [[salesperson]] with a clever new product (one that, you know, embedded [[leveraged alpha]], or something) had to go through the motions of justifying its “extraordinary potential”<ref>i.e., for [[sales credits]]</ref> when pitching it to {{sex|his}} [[mark]]s<ref>Did I say “[[mark]]s”? I meant “sophisticated [[client]]s properly categorised for [[MiFID]] purposes as [[Professional client - COBS Provision|professionals]] who weren’t carpet-bagging blaggers, had the slightest clue what they were about, effortlessly saw [[charlatan]]s coming a mile off and weren’t remotely influenced by the [[corporate entertainment]] — golf, motor racing, fine dining and [[hookers]] — with which they were lavishly festooned”.</ref>. | Once upon a time a resourceful [[salesperson]] with a clever new product (one that, you know, embedded [[leveraged alpha]], or something) had to go through the motions of justifying its “extraordinary potential”<ref>i.e., for [[sales credits]]</ref> when pitching it to {{sex|his}} [[mark]]s<ref>Did I say “[[mark]]s”? I meant “sophisticated [[client]]s properly categorised for [[MiFID]] purposes as [[Professional client - COBS Provision|professionals]] who weren’t carpet-bagging blaggers, had the slightest clue what they were about, effortlessly saw [[charlatan]]s coming a mile off and weren’t remotely influenced by the [[corporate entertainment]] — golf, motor racing, fine dining and [[hookers]] — with which they were lavishly festooned”.</ref>. | ||
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{{seealso}} | {{seealso}} | ||
*[[Confirmation bias]] | *[[Confirmation bias]] | ||
* | *{{t|Snake oil}} | ||
{{draft}} | {{draft}} | ||
{{ref}} | {{ref}} | ||