Certainty: Difference between revisions

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{{quote|If there was certainty, ninety-five percent of you wouldn’t ''have'' any goddamn work.
{{quote|If there was certainty, ninety-five percent of you wouldn’t ''have'' any goddamn work.
:—Also the Jolly Contrarian}}
:—Also the Jolly Contrarian}}
Be careful what you wish for. A world of certainty is a world of no [[doubt]], no mystery, no ''je ne sais pas''; no contingency, no [[disclaimer]]s that [[past performance is no indicator of future results]], not because it suddenly ''is'' an indicator, but because that accursed inductive mode of reasoning is at long last obsolete, all data is at hand and the future can be arrived at ''de''ductively, from first principles, the same way that rice pudding and income tax can be deduced from “[[cogito, ergo sum]]”.<ref>{{hhgg}}, [[as any fule kno]].</ref>
Be careful what you wish for. A world of certainty is a world of no [[doubt]], no mystery, no ''je ne sais pas''; no contingency, no [[disclaimer]]s that [[past performance is no indicator of future results]], not because suddenly the past ''is'' an indicator: everything that is to come can be extrapolated from what has already been. Our accursed [[induction|inductive mode of reasoning]] is obsolete. We can [[deduction|''de''duce the future]] from the data we have to hand, from first principles, the same way that one can deduce rice pudding and income tax from “[[cogito, ergo sum]]”.<ref>{{hhgg}}, [[as any fule kno]].</ref>


A certain universe is a ''determined'' universe, where each stem in the great branching bush of causal chains is fully taxonomised, catalogued, worked out — if not in theory, then in principle — down to the individual particle in a Saharan dust storm, where the trajectory of each crisp packet that blows across St Mark’s square can be calculated, anticipated and predicted, as can all the trajectories if crisp packets that didn't, but might have tumbled across that palazzo, had the circumstances been different, even through, by immovable presumption of your [[philosophy]], they cannot have been.
A certain universe, then, is a ''determined'' universe, where each stem in the great fractal bloom of evolution; every infinitesimal causal chains twisting madly through evolutionary design space, is fully taxonomised, catalogued, worked out and mapped. We can plot where when and how every crisp packet will kick and tumble across St Mark’s square, as all those that didn’t, but might have tumbled across that palazzo, had the circumstances been different, even through, by immovable presumption of your [[philosophy]], they cannot have been.


A certain workplace is one in which all decisions are made, all outcomes knowable by derivation, all misconceived strategies, all branding misadventures, governance shortcomings, trading disasters and promotion outrages of the future are as inevitable and unstoppable now as the countless ones that have happened and one’s hopes, piled against hopes, that there is something one can do, however feeble, to influence how things might be improved, made better or that any decisions one can make are even capable of bringing about personal betterment or reward
We can predict the Madagascan hurricane, the Brazilian butterfly whose flapping wings set it off, and all the myriad intervening causes in between.
 
A certain workplace is one in which all decisions are made, all outcomes knowable by derivation, all misconceived strategies, all branding misadventures, governance shortcomings, trading disasters and promotion outrages of the future are as inevitable and unstoppable now as the countless ones that have already happened. Our hopes, piled against hope, that there is something, ''anything'', we can do, however feeble or oblique, to influence the world and our place in it for the better — surely as profound a human aspiration as there is — is forlorn. We are on a rail. We are clockwork soldiers.


===It’s relative===
===It’s relative===

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