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Certainty: Difference between revisions
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===It’s relative=== | ===It’s relative=== | ||
If only you knew. “Oh, JC, you silly old duffer,” you say and punch me on the arm. “I know certainty is an impossible state — everyone knows see that — but, like a prisoner shackled to a cave seeing shadows on the wall, it is an idea we can ''apprehend'' and aspire to; our advantage is pressed not by finding certainty but getting nearer to it than the competition. Isn't that the definition of a competitive advantage? | If only you knew. “Oh, JC, you silly old duffer,” you say and punch me on the arm. “I know certainty is an impossible state — everyone knows see that — but, like a prisoner shackled to a cave seeing shadows on the wall, it is an idea we can ''apprehend'' and aspire to; our advantage is pressed not by finding certainty but getting nearer to it than the competition. Isn't that the definition of a competitive advantage? | ||
===Bounded rationality=== | |||
Per Gerd Gigerenzer: | |||
*'''Risk ≠ Uncertainty''': the best decision under risk is not the best decisions under uncertainty. Probabilities work for risk situations (where the system is closed and predictable and all potential outcomes are known); heuristics work best for situations of uncertainty (where all facts, outcomes etc are not known). | |||
*'''Simplicity''': complex problems do not necessarily require complex solutions. | |||
*'''The power of heuristics''': [[heuristics]] are indispensable for good decision-making in uncertain situations. They are not a suboptimal solution. | |||
*'''Less is more''': More information, time and computation is not always an advantage. | |||
{{Sa}} | {{Sa}} | ||
*[[Doubt]] | *[[Doubt]] | ||
{{Ref}} | {{Ref}} | ||