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OODA loop: Difference between revisions
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[[File:Fighter planes.png|450px|thumb|center|John Boyd getting inside some Russki’s OSDA Loop yesterday. (Ok this is badly photoshopped drivel)]] | [[File:Fighter planes.png|450px|thumb|center|John Boyd getting inside some Russki’s OSDA Loop yesterday. (Ok this is badly photoshopped drivel)]] | ||
}}In a situation of direct, bilateral conflict — dogfighting, Chess, test cricket, [[Brexit|in/out referendums on membership of the European Union]], an OODA loop is a combatant’s [[Decision-making|decision]] cycle: “observe, orient, decide, act”: the idea being you need to take in what is happening (''observe''), synthesise a theory of what the oppo is up to (''orient''),<ref>“Orient” doesn’t seem as good a word to me as “synthesise”, especially as that would have made the acronym “OSDA”, which all [[ninja]]s will find pleasing.</ref> figure out what to do (''decide'') and then do it (''act'') ''before'' the other side gets through its own process of doing exactly that, and changes tack, spoiling your clever plan. | }}{{Quote| | ||
AIR CONTROLLER MACIAS: Maybe we ought to turn on the search-lights now? | |||
REX KRAMER: No. That’s just what they’ll be expecting us to do. | |||
:—''Airplane!'' (1980}}In a situation of direct, bilateral conflict — dogfighting, Chess, test cricket, [[Brexit|in/out referendums on membership of the European Union]], an OODA loop is a combatant’s [[Decision-making|decision]] cycle: “observe, orient, decide, act”: the idea being you need to take in what is happening (''observe''), synthesise a theory of what the oppo is up to (''orient''),<ref>“Orient” doesn’t seem as good a word to me as “synthesise”, especially as that would have made the acronym “OSDA”, which all [[ninja]]s will find pleasing.</ref> figure out what to do (''decide'') and then do it (''act'') ''before'' the other side gets through its own process of doing exactly that, and changes tack, spoiling your clever plan. | |||
The concept was invented by legendary US Air Force Colonel, John Boyd whose classic dog-fighting manoeuvre was to suddenly fly straight up, stalling his plane, obliging his pursuer to fly straight past him, then dropping down on the attacker and giving him the full nine yards.<ref>Speaking of dogfighting, the legend that this expression originated from the total length of a Spitfire’s machine gun belt (hence to give it the full nine yards is to shoot everything you have at once), but disappointingly this appears to be an urban myth, at least according to Wikipedia. The phrase dates back to the late 19th century.</ref> | The concept was invented by legendary US Air Force Colonel, John Boyd whose classic dog-fighting manoeuvre was to suddenly fly straight up, stalling his plane, obliging his pursuer to fly straight past him, then dropping down on the attacker and giving him the full nine yards.<ref>Speaking of dogfighting, the legend that this expression originated from the total length of a Spitfire’s machine gun belt (hence to give it the full nine yards is to shoot everything you have at once), but disappointingly this appears to be an urban myth, at least according to Wikipedia. The phrase dates back to the late 19th century.</ref> | ||
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Famously, the Brexit side of the Brexit Referendum was marshalled by a chap, Dominic Cummings, who remains a big fan of the OODA loop theory, and used it to great advantage to keep the Remain side permanently destabilised. | Famously, the Brexit side of the Brexit Referendum was marshalled by a chap, Dominic Cummings, who remains a big fan of the OODA loop theory, and used it to great advantage to keep the Remain side permanently destabilised. | ||
Now getting inside your opponent’s punch is all well and good so long as it is your opponent, of course, and Matthew Syed has rightly pointed out<ref>“Looping the Loop”, ''Sideways'', [https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000sr4s BBC podcast].<ref> that dogfighting as a strategy for peacetime governance didn’t work out so well for Cummings since the idea wasn’t the [[finite game]] of defeating utterly an opponent in a binary, winner-take-all showdown, but the [[infinite game]] of keeping as many people happy for as long and often as possible. | Now getting inside your opponent’s punch is all well and good so long as it is your opponent, of course, and Matthew Syed has rightly pointed out<ref>“Looping the Loop”, ''Sideways'', [https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000sr4s BBC podcast].</ref> that dogfighting as a strategy for peacetime governance didn’t work out so well for Cummings since the idea wasn’t the [[finite game]] of defeating utterly an opponent in a binary, winner-take-all showdown, but the [[infinite game]] of keeping as many people happy for as long and often as possible. | ||
Throwing OODA loops is an exhausting, destructive, destabilising business. It works best for [[zero-sum game|zero-sum]], short-duration fixed-rule games where keeping other players at a disadvantage is the optimal outcome. But if your game is “keepy uppy” — which in the broadest sense most of political and social life is — | |||
{{sa}} | {{sa}} | ||
*[[Brexit]] | *[[Brexit]] | ||
*[[ISDA ninja]] | *[[ISDA ninja]] | ||
{{br|Finite and Infinite Games: A Vision of Life as Play and Possibility}} | *{{br|Finite and Infinite Games: A Vision of Life as Play and Possibility}} | ||
{{ref}} | {{ref}} | ||