Black duck: Difference between revisions
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An event that: | An event that: | ||
:a) Carries an extreme impact | |||
(b) Is highly amenable to post-facto, wise-after-the-event rationalisation, especially by politicians, regulators and senior executives to whose subordinates the event happens | :(b) Is highly amenable to post-facto, wise-after-the-event rationalisation, especially by politicians, regulators and senior executives to whose subordinates the event happens | ||
(c) Lies outside the subject’s ''actual'' expectations, whether or not those expectations were sensible or reasonable. | :(c) Lies outside the subject’s ''actual'' expectations, whether or not those expectations were sensible or reasonable. | ||
From a company executive’s perspective, black ''ducks'' are like [[Black swan|black ''swans'']] — exactly the same in fact — only they are easier for people on [[Twitter]] to be judgmental about. | From a company executive’s perspective, black ''ducks'' are like [[Black swan|black ''swans'']] — exactly the same in fact — only they are easier for people on [[Twitter]] to be judgmental about. | ||
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Subtle, but important intellectual distinction even though it has no practical influence on the lived experience of (a) taxpayers or (b) [[subject matter expert]]s. | Subtle, but important intellectual distinction even though it has no practical influence on the lived experience of (a) taxpayers or (b) [[subject matter expert]]s. | ||
So, black swans: The collapse of the Soviet Union, 9/11, | So, black swans: The collapse of the Soviet Union, 9/11, the internet, [[GameStop]]. | ||
''Not'' black swans: [[Covid-19]], the [[Global Financial Crisis]], the Invasion of Ukraine, Archegos, [[Cryptocurrency]] fraud, [[SVB|SVB Memeplex]]. | |||
{{Sa}} | {{Sa}} | ||
*[[Black swan]] | *[[Black swan]] | ||
Revision as of 14:33, 4 April 2023
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Black duck
/blæk/ /dʌk/ (n.)
An event that:
- a) Carries an extreme impact
- (b) Is highly amenable to post-facto, wise-after-the-event rationalisation, especially by politicians, regulators and senior executives to whose subordinates the event happens
- (c) Lies outside the subject’s actual expectations, whether or not those expectations were sensible or reasonable.
From a company executive’s perspective, black ducks are like black swans — exactly the same in fact — only they are easier for people on Twitter to be judgmental about.
So, if it is a black swan, Q.E.D. it is no-one’s fault, certainly not yours, being impossible to foresee,[1] so you get away scot-free, the taxpayer foots the bill and you just fire a few subject matter experts for the sake of good order and to be seen to be doing something.
If it is a black duck, you should have known better, so your main industry is plausibly establishing that this is all your subject matter expert’s fault, so you fire them for good measure and the taxpayer picks up the bill.
Subtle, but important intellectual distinction even though it has no practical influence on the lived experience of (a) taxpayers or (b) subject matter experts.
So, black swans: The collapse of the Soviet Union, 9/11, the internet, GameStop.
Not black swans: Covid-19, the Global Financial Crisis, the Invasion of Ukraine, Archegos, Cryptocurrency fraud, SVB Memeplex.
See also
- ↑ Being “impossible to foresee” is quite closely correlated with Nassim Nicholas Taleb not being able to foresee it.