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A traditional risk manager — that is, one managing [[complicated system]]s and not [[complex system|complex]] ones<ref>Open question — a ''gaping'' open question, like when your goalie has come up for a corner — is ''why'' a traditional risk manager is managing what is undoubtedly a [[wicked environment]] using tools suitable for a [[tame environment|tame]] one. But it was ever thus: [[Black-Scholes option pricing model]], which is predicated on a normal distribution, can’t work with The [[Black swan|tail events]] and whose failure in those circumstances led directly to both the [[LTCM]] collapse and the [[Great Financial Crisis]], is still widely used today, after all.</ref> — will be conditioned to using control techniques to anticipate and eliminate all risk. | A traditional risk manager — that is, one managing [[complicated system]]s and not [[complex system|complex]] ones<ref>Open question — a ''gaping'' open question, like when your goalie has come up for a corner — is ''why'' a traditional risk manager is managing what is undoubtedly a [[wicked environment]] using tools suitable for a [[tame environment|tame]] one. But it was ever thus: [[Black-Scholes option pricing model]], which is predicated on a normal distribution, can’t work with The [[Black swan|tail events]] and whose failure in those circumstances led directly to both the [[LTCM]] collapse and the [[Great Financial Crisis]], is still widely used today, after all.</ref> — will be conditioned to using control techniques to anticipate and eliminate all risk. | ||
In a [[complex system]] this is not just hard; ''it is impossible''. One must instead depend on local managers | In a [[complex system]] this is not just hard; ''it is impossible''. One must instead depend on local managers making spontaneous, provisional decisions in real-time to address the situation as they see it and under conditions of significant uncertainty. This is ''not'' a suitable application for chatbots: here ''[[subject matter expert|expertise]]'' and, even more importantly, ''[[Every dog has its day|experience]]'' are essential qualities when making those decisions.<ref>Needless to say, this is not what our [[management consultant]] friends, who advocate [[down-skilling]] and [[offshoring]], want to hear.</ref> A [[complex system]] is not totally random — in that case, any action would be as good as any other — so some control is possible, but it is ''not'' possible to prescribe in advance what that action should be. | ||
Therefore plan, but not with an expected outcome in mind. Plan ''for the unexpected''. Have band-aids, a Swiss Army knife, some duct tape and a towel with you. Try to imagine how things might unfold, and watch them as they do, adapting as you go. | Therefore plan, but not with an expected outcome in mind. Plan ''for the unexpected''. Have band-aids, a Swiss Army knife, some duct tape and a towel with you. Try to imagine how things might unfold, and watch them as they do, adapting as you go. | ||
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::— {{author|Richard Dawkins}} with one of his “yeah, well, not quite, Dickie” moments. He has had his fair share of those over the years. | ::— {{author|Richard Dawkins}} with one of his “yeah, well, not quite, Dickie” moments. He has had his fair share of those over the years. | ||
You ''cannot'' brute force compute a wicked problem, like | You ''cannot'' brute-force compute a [[wicked problem]], like catching a ball,<ref>Ohh, but catching a ball isn’t a wicked problem! I hear you cry. For hard-determinist, reductionist types maybe, but if you have ever pondered the odd lack of tenured physics professors in the national cricket team you may, like the [[JC]] beg to differ. The [[JC]]’s celebrated experiments with [[the proverbial crisp packet in St Mark’s Square]]. may help explain.</ref> ''but you can still catch a ball'': don’t think, “punch all the variables into a machine and run round to the resulting co-ordinate and stick your hand out.” You don’t have nearly enough information to even majke the calculation. Instead, just run towards the damn thing, watching it, adjusting as you go.<ref>A study a while back found professional baseball players, while ''excellent'' at catching moving balls they were allowed to run towards, had a lot more trouble predicting where those balls would land when made to stand still.</ref> | ||
This is hard for a [[complicated system]]s guy. [[Complicated system]]s you can brute force, and you can predict how they will behave. You can pre-bake solutions, making them more simple. In [[complex system]]s you can’t: need to keep your options open and be prepared to shift, adapt, re-evaluate, and toss out whatever you might have concluded before now. {{author|Philip Tetlock}}’s “{{br|Superforecasters}}” are complex systems thinkers. Baseball players are complex systems thinkers. Richard Dawkins, whom I like to imagine was dyspraxic,<ref>largely because he was trying to solve differential equations instead of running after the ball, of course.</ref> is a [[complicated system]]s thinker. | This is hard for a [[complicated system]]s guy. [[Complicated system]]s you can brute force, and you can predict how they will behave. You can pre-bake solutions, making them more simple. In [[complex system]]s you can’t: need to keep your options open and be prepared to shift, adapt, re-evaluate, and toss out whatever you might have concluded before now. {{author|Philip Tetlock}}’s “{{br|Superforecasters}}” are complex systems thinkers. Baseball players are complex systems thinkers. Richard Dawkins, whom I like to imagine was dyspraxic,<ref>largely because he was trying to solve differential equations instead of running after the ball, of course.</ref> is a [[complicated system]]s thinker. | ||